A strong fourth quarter closed 2015 as a record-breaking year in commercial real estate sales in the Lower Mainland.

There were a total of 2,307 commercial real estate sales in the Lower Mainland in 2015. This is a 16.2 per cent increase over the 1,985 sales in 2014, which was the previous five-year record holder.

Commercial real estate sales in 2015 were 15.3 per cent above the region’s five-year sales average.

The total dollar value of commercial real estate sales in the Lower Mainland was $8.389 billion in 2015, nearly 33.7 per cent above the $6.273 billion total in 2014.

“Last year was an extremely strong year for commercial real estate sales, led by growth in both office and retail space, and multi-family properties,” said Darcy McLeod, REBGV president. “Overall, these numbers reflect B.C.’s solid economy and our own residential real estate market’s growth.”

2015 activity by category

Land: There were 819 commercial land sales in 2015, which is a 26 per cent increase from the 650 land sales in 2014. The dollar value of last year’s land sales was $3.825 billion, a 21.8 per cent increase over 2014’s $3.139 billion.
Office and Retail: There were 807 office and retail sales in the Lower Mainland in 2015, which is up 6.6 per cent from the 757 sales in 2014. The dollar value of last year’s office and retail sales was $2.364 billion, a 40.9 per cent increase over 2014’s $1.678 billion.
Industrial: There were 545 industrial land sales in the Lower Mainland in 2015, which is up 15.7 per cent over the 471 sales in 2014. The dollar value of last year’s industrial sales was $988 million, a 20 per cent increase over 2014’s $823 million.
Multi-Family: There were 136 multi-family land sales in the Lower Mainland in 2015, which is up 27.1 per cent over the 107 sales in 2014. The dollar value of last year’s multi-family sales was $1.210 billion, a 91.6 per cent increase over 2014’s $631 million.

The trend measure of housing starts in Canada was 198,880 units in February compared to 199,107 in  January, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.

“The national housing starts trend held steady in February, despite some important regional variances,” said Bob Dugan, CMHC Chief Economist. “Housing starts are trending at a 4-year low in the Prairies where low oil prices have weakened consumer confidence. At the same time, starts are trending at an 8-year high in British Columbia, as new and resale home inventories remain low”.

CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of the state of Canada’s housing market. In some situations analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading, as they are largely driven by the multi-unit segment of the market which can vary significantly from one month to the next.

The standalone monthly SAAR was 212,594 units in February, up from 165,071 units in January. The SAAR of urban starts increased by 30.9 per cent in February to 200,231 units. Multiple urban starts increased by 46.0 per cent to 138,774 units in February and the single-detached urban starts increased by 6.1 per cent to 61,457 units.

In February, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts increased in British Columbia, Ontario, Québec, Atlantic Canada and decreased in the Prairies.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 12,363 units.

The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.

The global economy is progressing largely as the Bank anticipated in its January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Financial market volatility, reflecting heightened concerns about economic momentum, appears to be abating. Although downside risks remain, the Bank still expects global growth to strengthen this year and next. Recent data indicate that the U.S. expansion remains broadly on track. At the same time, the low level of oil prices will continue to dampen growth in Canada and other energy-producing countries.

Prices of oil and other commodities have rebounded in recent weeks. In this context, and in light of shifting expectations for monetary policy in Canada and the United States, the Canadian dollar has appreciated from its recent lows. With these movements, both the price of oil and the exchange rate have averaged close to levels assumed in the January MPR.

Canada’s GDP growth in the fourth quarter was not as weak as expected, but the near-term outlook for the economy remains broadly the same as in January. National employment has held up despite job losses in resource-intensive regions, and household spending continues to underpin domestic demand. Non-energy exports are gathering momentum, particularly in sectors that are sensitive to exchange rate movements. However, overall business investment remains very weak due to retrenchment in the resource sector.

Inflation in Canada is evolving broadly as anticipated. The factors that pushed total CPI inflation up to 2 per cent will likely unwind in the months ahead. Measures of core inflation are at or just below 2 per cent, boosted by the temporary effects of past exchange rate depreciation. Material excess capacity in the Canadian economy will continue to dampen inflation.

An assessment of the impact of the upcoming federal budget’s fiscal measures will be incorporated into the Bank’s April projection. All things considered, the risks to the profile for inflation are roughly balanced. Meanwhile, financial vulnerabilities continue to edge higher, in part due to regional shifts in activity associated with the structural adjustment underway in Canada’s economy. The Bank’s Governing Council judges that the overall balance of risks remains within the zone for which the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate, and the target for the overnight rate remains at 1/2 per cent.

Last month was the highest selling February on record for the Metro Vancouver* housing market.

Residential property sales in the region totalled 4,172 in February 2016, an increase of 36.3 per cent from the 3,061 sales recorded in February 2015 and an increase of 65.6 per cent compared to January 2016 when 2,519 homes sold.

Last month’s sales were 56.3 per cent above the 10-year sales average for the month and rank as the highest February sales total on record.

“We're in a competitive, fast-moving market cycle that favours home sellers,” Darcy McLeod, REBGV president said. “Sustained home buyer competition is keeping upward pressure on home prices across the region.”

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Metro Vancouver totalled 5,812 in February 2016. This represents an increase of 7.1 per cent compared to the 5,425 units listed in February 2015 and a 30.8 per cent increase compared to January 2016 when 4,442 properties were listed.

“We're beginning to see home listings increase as we head toward the spring market, however, additional supply is still needed to meet today's demand,” McLeod said. The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 7,299, a 38.7 per cent decline compared to February 2015 (11,898) and a 10 per cent increase compared to January 2016 (6,635).

The sales-to-active listings ratio for February 2016 is 57.2 per cent. This is indicative of a seller’s market.

Generally, analysts say that downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below the 12 per cent mark, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it reaches the 20 to 22 per cent range in a particular community for a sustained period of time. The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $795,500. This represents a 22.2 per cent increase compared to February 2015.

Sales of detached properties in February 2016 reached 1,778, an increase of 37.2 per cent from the 1,296 detached sales recorded in February 2015. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 27 per cent from February 2015 to $1,305,600. Sales of apartment properties reached 1,790 in February 2016, an increase of 43.9 per cent compared to the 1,244 sales in February 2015.The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 17.7 per cent from February 2015 to $454,600.

Attached property sales in February 2016 totalled 604, an increase of 15.9 per cent compared to the 521 sales in February 2015. The benchmark price of an attached unit increased 17 per cent from February 2015 to $569,600.