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UniverCity's Harmony by Polygon. Seldom available North West facing PENTHOUSE CORNER UNIT features 9' ceiling throughout and a 12' ceiling in the living/dining room, separate kitchen with nook and balcony, big windows on both sides for lots of natural light and natural air, and overlooks a beautiful water fountain that provides for a calm and serene home. Upgraded laminate wood flooring throughout, ensuite with large tub, master bedroom large enough for a king size bed with walk in closet, and second bathroom with stand up shower adjacent to bedroom. Extra large parking stall next to entrance. Steps to SFU, Nesters Market, University Highlands Elementary, childcare, and major transit hub to Skytrain Station and Coquitlam Centre.


 

Listing offered by: Sutton Grp-West Coast (VanCam)

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Home buyer activity returned to more typical summer levels in Metro Vancouver* last month.


The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales in the region totalled 2,960 in July 2017, an 8.2 per cent decrease from the 3,226 sales recorded in July 2016, and a decrease of 24 per cent compared to June 2017 when 3,893 homes sold.


Last month’s sales were 0.7 per cent above the 10-year July sales average.


“Housing demand is inconsistent across the region right now. Pockets of the market are still receiving multiple offers and others are not. It depends on price, property type, and location,” Jill Oudil, REBGV president said. “For example, it’s taking twice as long, on average, for a detached home to sell compared to both townhomes and condominiums.”


There were 5,256 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in July 2017. This represents a 0.3 per cent increase compared to the 5,241 homes listed in July 2016 and an 8.1 per cent decrease compared to June 2017 when 5,721 homes were listed.


The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 9,194, a 10.1 per cent increase compared to July 2016 (8,351) and an eight per cent increase compared to June 2017 (8,515).


“Because home sale activity decreased to more historically normal levels in July, the selection of homes for sale in the region was able to edge above 9,000 for the first time this year,” Oudil, said.


For all property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for July 2017 is 32.2 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 16.9 per cent for detached homes, 44.9 per cent for townhomes, and 62 per cent for condominiums.


Generally, analysts say that downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below the 12 per cent mark for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.


The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,019,400. This represents an 8.7 per cent increase over July 2016 and a 2.1 per cent increase compared to June 2017.


Sales of detached properties in July 2017 reached 949, a decrease of 11.9 per cent from the 1,077 detached sales recorded in July 2016. The benchmark price for detached properties is $1,612,400. This represents a 1.9 per cent increase from July 2016 and a 1.5 per cent increase compared to June 2017.


Sales of apartment properties reached 1,468 in July 2017, a decrease of 8.4 per cent compared to the 1,602 sales in July 2016. The benchmark price of an apartment property is $616,600. This represents an 18.5 per cent increase from July 2016 and a 2.7 per cent increase compared to June 2017.


Attached property sales in July 2017 totalled 543, a decrease of 0.7 per cent compared to the 547 sales in July 2016. The benchmark price of an attached unit is $763,700. This represents an 11.9 per cent increase from July 2016 and a 2.4 per cent increase compared to June 2017.

 



*Editor’s Note: Areas covered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver include: Whistler, Sunshine Coast,
Squamish, West Vancouver, North Vancouver, Vancouver, Burnaby, New Westminster, Richmond, Port Moody,
Port Coquitlam, Coquitlam, Pitt Meadows, Maple Ridge, and South Delta.


The real estate industry is a key economic driver in British Columbia. In 2016, 39,943 homes changed ownership in the Board’s area, generating $2.5 billion in economic spin-off activity and an estimated 17,600 jobs. The total dollar value of residential sales transacted through the MLS® system in Greater Vancouver totalled $40 billion in 2016.


The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver is an association representing more than 13,500 REALTORS® and their companies. The Board provides a variety of member services, including the Multiple Listing Service®. For more information on real estate, statistics, and buying or selling a home, contact a local REALTOR® or visit
www.rebgv.org.

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Gabi & Jules offers homemade pies by the slice, à la mode with a scoop of small-batch Rocky Point ice cream. The year-old bakery and shop also sells granola and brownie mix in mason jars, preserves and organic loose-leaf teas.


It sources its products as locally as possible, only uses real ingredients such as butter and operates out of a bright, airy, hip-looking place in the old part of town, around the corner from a new taco place called Taps & Tacos that serves locally made beers at high-top tables. Down the street is a new pizzeria that serves thin-crust Neapolitan pizza.

 

This enclave of artisanal urbanity is not in Vancouver’s Gastown – it’s a one-hour SkyTrain ride away, in the small suburb of Port Moody, which sits on Burrard Inlet, surrounded by mountains.

 

“Growing up here, it was not the desirable place to be, so now we find it funny and kind of cool, to see how it’s changed,” says Lisa Beecroft, who co-owns Gabi & Jules with husband Patrick.

 

“We are now seeing that sort of mentality take shape, with people looking for that craft and authenticity in what people are making.”

 

Port Moody used to be the place you’d pass through on your way to Buntzen Lake. But in the past couple of years, the city has transformed from strip malls to locally sourced mom and pop shops – and the hipster culture that entails.


The new SkyTrain Evergreen line, which opened in December, also opened up major possibilities. Now, Vancouverites make day trips into Port Moody for its popular Brewery Row, with craft breweries along an industrial three-block stretch.

 

It helps, too, of course, that buyers get more for their buck in Port Moody. The benchmark price of a condo in the municipality shot up 25.4 per cent in the past year, but buyers can get bigger condos in more desirable locations compared with what they get for the same price in Vancouver. And that’s the case for other areas of Metro Vancouver, which are seeing a boost in the all-important 25- to 39-year-old demographic, as a result.

 

An urbanizing of the suburbs is under way. In Langley, Port Moody, Burnaby and New Westminster, the millennial cohort is finding, and creating, urban pockets that fit a lifestyle demanding transit, affordability and walkability.

 

In municipalities where those criteria exist, the number of millennials has shot up. In areas where those qualities are lacking, their numbers have plummeted. Simon Fraser University City Program director Andy Yan analyzed new Census data from 1996 to 2016 that show a dramatic 31-per-cent drop in their numbers in both West Vancouver and North Vancouver District; a 31-per-cent drop in White Rock; a 25-per-cent drop in Delta; and a 14-per-cent drop in Port Coquitlam. Conversely, their numbers grew by 18 per cent in New Westminster; 14 per cent in the District of Langley; 11 per cent in Vancouver and Burnaby; and 10 per cent in Port Moody and 9 per cent in  Richmond. Maple Ridge and Pitt Meadows had marginal 2-per-cent and 1-per-cent gains, while Coquitlam has flat-lined.


The average for Metro Vancouver was a 9-per-cent gain in 25- to 39-year-olds.

 

The migration is putting pressure on the development community to come up with more creative options than a residential tower with generic retail space at ground level. Potential residents want community. They want their neighbourhood barber, pub, bakery, library and bank within walking distance.

 

For the typical millennial, whether buying or renting, sprawl is anathema.

 

“If you look at random condo towers thrown up a decade ago, it now doesn’t make sense,” says Curtis Scott, market-intelligence manager for Colliers Western Canada.

 

Mr. Scott is also a millennial who grew up in the suburbs. He says mixed-use developments that blend family living with retail and work environments are becoming more common because of the shifting demographic.

 

“Now, you see developments that are strategic … and there’s incentive to build higher with larger floor plates in areas where they want to encourage other uses, such as retail, industrial and commercial. It’s that connectivity between neighbourhoods in a city that is their focus.”

 

The phenomenon of “hipsturbia,” as it was called in a 2013 New York Times piece, is happening throughout North America. As speculation drives home prices upward, millennials seeking affordable housing must move outward until they qualify.

 

Realtor Alison Bernstein saw an opportunity to target that market when she launched Suburban Jungle throughout North America last year. Her business model began with New York, where millennials had been priced out of Brooklyn and went searching for housing in nearby towns. Today, she’s helping locate buyers outside of expensive cities such as San Francisco. Each client is assigned a realtor and a local town adviser who helps potential buyers get acquainted with town amenities. She’s also launching a commercial division to help the small businesses that are following them.

 

“I think it’s happening all over the place, young people are migrating outward,” Ms. Bernstein says.

 

However, she says the cycle is a transient one. Buyers go outward to raise families but often return to urban areas once the kids are grown, and their wealth has increased.

 

“When our parents left the city, they were looking to move to suburbia and never look back,” Ms. Bernstein says. “Now, there’s that more transient feeling of, ‘we’re not here forever; we’re here to raise our kids.’”

 

When Ali and Neil Grayston returned to the Lower Mainland after five years living in Los Angeles, they were shocked to discover they’d been priced out of the Vancouver market. When they went looking for a place with their $1,750 budget, they discovered that they’d have to live in subpar conditions, with or without roommates.

 

“It was ridiculous, not just the lack of affordability, but the lack of availability,” says Mr. Grayston, 36, an actor. “We wanted a one-bedroom and that was completely out of the picture.”

 

The couple viewed a microsuite in Gastown that was less than 400 square feet and cost $2,300 a month.

“Basically, we would have been living in a hallway,” he says.

 

One landlord posted an ad that said, “Cats preferred, preferably with mousing experience.”

“We passed on that one,” he says, dryly.

 

They looked to Brentwood, in Burnaby, which, Ms. Grayston says, is “exploding with people our age.” “It was one of our top places, not just because we knew it was becoming a hip neighbourhood, but it was on the SkyTrain,” she says. Ms. Grayston works at Fluevog Shoes in Gastown.

 

But they were already priced out of Brentwood as well, so they chose New Westminster, where they had owned a condo at one time. Ms. Grayston says her brother, a diehard Vancouverite, had initially opposed their choice of New Westminster – but he’s now looking at Port Moody.

 

The Graystons rent a spacious apartment for $1,100 a month and can get downtown by SkyTrain in a half-hour.


“It is one of those places that is perpetually up and coming,” Mr. Grayston says. “It’s a bit of a bedroom community, but it seems like things are open a bit later now, and new restaurants are popping up every day.”

 

A farmers market, outdoor movie night and the Westminster Pier Park are added bonuses, Ms. Grayston says.


“It’s really important to me to have walkability,” she says. “We didn’t want to be stuck in a subdivision of houses. We wanted a place where there is a lot of community involvement, where we could almost have a Vancouver lifestyle. “And if we wanted to stay within 30 per cent of our income [toward housing costs] and be comfortable; we had to be out in New West.”

 

Greg Moore, mayor of Port Coquitlam and chair of Metro Vancouver, says his city might have seen a decline in millennials because they’ve simply aged in place, which is a good thing, because they’re not moving away.

 

“At one point we had the youngest average age in Metro Vancouver, which was 39 years old, and that was just over five years ago. I remember, because I was the average age,” he says.

 

But he sees anecdotal evidence that young families are again moving into to Port Coquitlam and he points to the growth of its downtown, as well as festivals and events, as part of the draw. The city has also recently approved two microbreweries – always a sure sign of pending hipsturbia. He’s also seen an additional 5,000 residents in the downtown core in the past 10 years.

 

“We’re looking at adding more three-bedroom condos because more families are gravitating toward living in a condo near a transit station,” he says. “But at the same time, some still do want that backyard.”

 

Millennials, especially those in their 30s, grew up in the single-family home, and the expectation to own a house is generally still there.

 

But as house prices increase, that would mean further migration outward.

 

On a sunny Friday afternoon, I met up with 32-year-old Jennifer Calabrigo who works in sales for a Burnaby-based dairy company. Her husband, Matt Wallace, 31, who moved eight years ago from Boston, works for a tech firm in downtown Vancouver.

 

Ms. Calabrigo is like a lot of Lower Mainland millennials. She and her husband had rented in Vancouver’s Mount Pleasant neighbourhood but wanted to buy. Although they loved Vancouver, they couldn’t afford it. Their list of priorities included somewhere near the SkyTrain as well as walkability, with a great lifestyle. But competition in the condo market is fierce, so it took a year of searching and six occasions when they were outbid by up to $100,000.

 

They discovered Port Moody through friends who’d already moved there. Last summer, they put in an offer of $590,000 on a 1,100-square-foot, two-bedroom-with-den condo in Suter Brook Village, with views of water and mountains. It was listed for $545,000. They got it and moved in last August. Ms. Calabrigo says they never would have found the spacious-view condo in Vancouver, where the new condos are too small and cramped.

 

“We had been looking at tiny, little one-bedrooms that hadn’t been updated, and you’d have to renovate the whole thing, spend more money. And we wanted more space because we want a family,” she says, standing in her galley kitchen. “And we didn’t want to start with a one-bedroom and have to move again and again. Everything they are building is 500 square feet. They aren’t for young couples and people starting families.”

 

Her building is surrounded by a village-type retail area, a five-minute walk to the SkyTrain and within walking distance of Brewery Row, where they go on Fridaynights. On that particular Friday night, there was a rib fest happening at Rocky Point Park, on the water.

 

However, once they start a family, Ms. Calabrigo is less sure that condo living will still appeal.

 

“We’ll stay in a condo for a bit, and then in order to buy a house we will probably have to move further out,” she says. “A lot of people are moving to Maple Ridge or Mission.”

 

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Canada's long housing boom has drawn thousands into the sector, from realtors and home stagers to construction workers, and a looming slowdown threatens to trigger an exodus that could wipe out many of those jobs and force the economy to shift down.


While housing has long been the main engine of Canadian growth, economists say a drop in home sales has already started to weigh on the economy and if price declines follow, consumer spending and jobs will suffer.


"To a lot of people, it is a get-rich-quick scheme," Toronto realtor David Fleming said about the real estate market. "But history shows when the market turns, half of the agents leave."


Realtors' ranks in Canada's largest city and hottest housing market have surged 77 percent since 2008 to more than 48,000 - nearly 10 times the pace of Canadian job growth. Nationwide, that number has risen 26.9 percent.


By comparison, there are over 13,500 realtors in Chicago, according to the Chicago Association of Realtors.

With Canadian home construction jobs rising at nearly the same pace as real estate jobs, housing has become the top driver of employment and economic growth, accounting for the bulk of Canada's economic growth last year.


As the nearly one million housing sector jobs now far outstrip those in oil and gas extraction and mining combined and approach the size of the manufacturing sector, economists brace for a painful reckoning if the housing slowdown turns into a long correction.


More than half of the analysts polled by Reuters in May said a sharp housing correction was somewhat or very likely in Toronto and Vancouver, but unlikely nationally. 


Recent data showed nation-wide home resales fell 6.7 percent in June, the largest monthly drop since 2010 and the third straight monthly decline as sales in Toronto tumbled, and sales are expected to slow further as interest rates rise. 


CONSUMPTION HIT

While most housing bears have been focusing on how much home prices could drop, economists are also trying to work out how badly a resulting decline in consumer spending and housing jobs could hurt the broad economy.


Their forecasts range from 0.2 percentage points to 0.5 percentage points shaved off Canada's economic growth per year, with the impact spread over a number of years.


"The jobs slowdown will not occur in a single month, but over a six-month to one-year period," said Frances Donald, senior economist at Manulife Asset Management. "And the hit to consumption may take up to two years to really be felt."


The Bank of Canada has forecast the contribution of housing to economic growth will fall from 0.3 percentage points this year to zero in 2018 and a 0.1 percentage point subtraction in 2019. The Royal Bank of Canada and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce both expect housing to reduce next year's growth by 0.2 percentage points.


David Madani, economist at Capital Economics in Toronto and a well-known housing bear who predicts prices will drop by as much as 40 percent, expects the fallout will be deeper and last longer, reducing Canada's annual growth rate by half a percentage point over the next five years.


With the central bank forecasting GDP growth of just 2.0 percent in 2018 and 1.6 percent in 2019, such a drag could bring the economy closer to recession.


Veteran realtors who have seen the industry swell with inexperienced agents have no doubts that a slowdown will decimate their ranks.


"It is definitely overpopulated," said Shawn Zigelstein, a realtor in the York Region, north of Toronto. "A downturn will weed out of some of those agents who got into the business for the wrong reasons."


Already, many realtors are struggling in the crowded market. Nearly half of Toronto's licensed realtors did fewer than two deals last year, according to Brian Torry, general manager at Bosley Real Estate in Toronto. Less than a third did five or more transactions.


"It is a tough industry to break into," said Jared Gardner, 38, who got his real estate license last year and works in the Toronto area.


Fleming believes many agents are already making less than minimum wage once license, membership and brokerage fees are paid, and it can only get tougher if sales continue to dry up.


Realtors in Alberta, Canada's oil patch, know just how tough.


Following an oil price slump in 2015, sales in Calgary's once booming housing market fell 5.5 percent from 2015 to 2016 and only have begun to stabilize, according to the Calgary Real Estate Board. There are 5.4 percent fewer realtors in the city now than there were in 2008.


Alberta's experience serves as a reminder of what could be next for Toronto and Vancouver, where housing buoyed local economies and job markets for eight years.


History also carries a warning. In Canada's last major housing downturn, real estate employment plunged 18 percent between 1989 and 1992 and took until 1997 to recover, according to Statistics Canada.


"We've had a multiple-year expansion driven by housing, and we're probably going to have a multi-year headwind to growth driven by a decline in housing," said Manulife's Donald.


Provided by: Andrea Hopkins for MSN Money

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