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Listing provided by: RE/MAX LifeStyles Realty

Statistics released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show national home sales continued to edge higher in November 2019.

Highlights:

• National home sales rose 0.6% month-over-month (m-o-m) basis in November.
• Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity was up 11.3% year-over-year (y-o-y).
• The number of newly listed properties dropped by 2.7% m-o-m.
• The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) advanced by 0.8% m-o-m and 2.6% y-o-y.
• The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price climbed 8.4% y-o-y.

Home sales recorded via Canadian MLS® Systems inched up by 0.6% November 2019. Notching its ninth straight monthly gain, activity stands 20% above the six-year low reached in February 2019 but 6% to 7% below heights recorded in 2016 and 2017.

There was an almost even split between the number of local markets where activity rose and those where it declined. Higher sales across much of British Columbia and in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) offset a decline in activity in Calgary.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity was up 11.3% year-over-year in November. Transactions surpassed year-ago levels in almost all of Canada’s largest urban markets.

“Sales continue to improve in some regions and not so much in others,” said Jason Stephen, president of CREA. “The mortgage stress-test doesn’t help relieve the ongoing shortage of housing in markets where sales have improved, and it continues to hammer housing demand in markets with ample supply. All real estate is local, and nobody knows that better than a professional REALTOR®, your best source for information and guidance when negotiating the sale or purchase of a home,” said Stephen.

“Home prices look set to continue rising in housing markets where sales are recovering amid an ongoing shortage of supply,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “By the same token, home prices will likely continue trending lower in places where there’s a significant overhang of supply, perpetuated in part by the B-20 mortgage stress-test that continues to sideline homebuyers there.”

The number of newly listed homes slid a further 2.7%, putting them among the lowest levels posted in the past decade. November’s decline was driven primarily by fewer new listings in the GTA.

Slightly higher sales and a drop in new listings further tightened the national sales-to-new listings ratio to 66.3%, which is well above the long-term average of 53.7%. If current trends continue, the balance between supply and demand makes further home price gains likely.

Considering the degree and duration to which market balance readings are above or below their long-term averages is the best way of gauging whether local housing market conditions favour buyers or sellers. Market balance measures that are within one standard deviation of their long-term average are generally consistent with balanced market conditions.

Based on a comparison of the sales-to-new listings ratio with the long-term average, just over half of all local markets were in balanced market territory in November. That list includes the GTA and Lower Mainland of British Columbia, but market balance there is tightening. By contrast, an oversupply of homes relative to demand across much of Alberta and Saskatchewan means sales negotiations remain tilted in favour of buyers.

Meanwhile, an ongoing shortage of supply of homes available for purchase across most of Ontario, Quebec and the Maritime provinces means sellers there hold the upper hand in sales negotiations. The number of months of inventory is another important measure of the balance between sales and the supply of listings. It represents how long it would take to liquidate current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

There were just 4.2 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of November 2019 – the lowest level recorded since the summer of 2007. This measure of market balance has been retreating further below its long-term average of 5.3 months. While still just within balanced market territory, its current reading suggests that sales negotiations are becoming increasingly tilted in favour of sellers.

National measures of market balance continue to mask significant and increasing regional variations. The number of months of inventory has swollen far beyond long-term averages in Prairie provinces and Newfoundland & Labrador, giving homebuyers ample choice in these regions. By contrast, the measure is running well below long-term averages in Ontario, Quebec and Maritime provinces, resulting in increased competition among buyers for listings and providing fertile ground for price gains. The measure is still within balanced market territory in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia but is becoming increasingly tilted in favour of sellers.

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) rose 0.8%. Marking its sixth consecutive monthly gain, it now stands almost 4% above its low point reached last May.

The MLS® HPI in November was up from the previous month in 14 of the 18 markets tracked by the index.

Home price trends have generally been stabilizing in the Prairies in recent months.

While that remains the case in Calgary, Edmonton and Saskatoon, prices in Regina have again moved lower. By contrast, home price trends have clearly started to recover in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia. Meanwhile, prices continue to rebound in the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) region while continuing to trend higher in housing markets to the east of it.

Comparing home prices to year-ago levels yields considerable variations across the country, with a mix of gains and declines in western Canada together with price gains in eastern Canada.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) Aggregate Composite MLS® (HPI) was up 2.6% y-o-y in November 2019, the biggest year-over-year gain since March 2018.

Home prices in Greater Vancouver (-4.6%) and the Fraser Valley (-2.9%) remain below year-ago levels but declines are shrinking. Elsewhere in British Columbia, home prices logged y-o-y increases in the Okanagan Valley (+1.4%), Victoria (+1.5%) and elsewhere on Vancouver Island (+2.8%).

Calgary, Edmonton and Saskatoon posted price declines of around -2% y-o-y, while the gap widened to-5.5% y-o-y in Regina.

In Ontario, price growth has re-accelerated well ahead of overall consumer price inflation across most of the GGH. Meanwhile, price growth in recent years has continued uninterrupted in Ottawa, Montreal and Moncton.

All benchmark home categories tracked by the index accelerated further into positive territory on a y-o-y basis. Two-storey single-family home prices posted the biggest increase, rising 2.8% y-o-y. Price gains were almost as strong for apartment units (+2.6% y-o-y) and one-storey single family homes (+2.5% y o y), while townhouse/row prices climbed a more modest 1.5% compared to November 2018.

The MLS® HPI provides the best way to gauge price trends, because averages are strongly distorted by changes in the mix of sales activity from one month to the next.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in November 2019 was around $529,000, up 8.4% from the same month last year.

The national average price is heavily skewed by sales in the GVA and GTA, two of Canada’s most active and expensive housing markets. Excluding these two markets from calculations cuts almost $125,000 from the national average price, trimming it to around $404,000 and reducing the year-over-year gain to 6.9%.

Provided by: CREA

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 6,616 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in November, an increase of 27.5 per cent from the same month last year. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $746,939, an increase of 5.5 per cent from November 2018. Total sales dollar volume was $4.94 billion, a 34.4 per cent increase from the same month last year.

“After several months of strong gains, home sales are now firming around long-run averages,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “We expect 2020 will be a much more typical year for markets compared to the volatility of recent years.”

MLS® residential active listings in the province were down 6.6 per cent from November 2018 to 31,310 units, and down for a seventh straight month on a seasonally adjusted basis. Overall market conditions remain balanced with a sales-to-active listings ratio of 21 per cent.

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 6 per cent to $50.23 billion, compared with the same period in 2018. Residential unit sales were 3.9 per cent lower at 72,106 units, while the average MLS® residential price was down 2.2 per cent year-todate at $696,574.

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Provided by: BCREA

The trend in housing starts was 219,047 units in November 2019, compared to 218,253 units in October 2019, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This trend measure is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.

“The national trend in housing starts was essentially unchanged in November, reflecting slight increases in the national trends of both multi-family and single-detached starts" said Bob Dugan, CMHC's chief economist.

“Vancouver saw a significant decline in the trend of multi-unit starts for a second consecutive month in November, following a period of elevated construction activity earlier in the year. However, this decline was offset by modest gains in the multi-unit trend in most other major markets, including Toronto.”

CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of Canada’s housing market. In some situations, analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading, as they are largely driven by the multi-unit segment of the market which can vary significantly from one month to the next.

The standalone monthly SAAR of housing starts for all areas in Canada was 201,318 units in November, a slight increase of 0.3% from 200,674 units in October. The SAAR of urban starts increased by 0.4% in November to 188,559 units. Multiple urban starts increased by 2.3% to 141,753 units in November while single-detached urban starts decreased by 5.1% to 46,806 units.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 12,759 units.

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Provided by: CMHC

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Listing Provided by: Presidio Professional Real Estate Services Inc.

After a quieter first half of 2019, home buyer activity has returned to more historically typical levels in Metro Vancouver*.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential home sales in the region totalled 2,498 in November 2019, a 55.3 per cent increase from the 1,608 sales recorded in November 2018, and a 12.6 per cent decline from the 2,858 homes sold in October 2019.

Last month’s sales were four per cent above the 10-year November sales average.

“We started to see more home buyer confidence in the summer and this trend continues today,” says Ashley Smith, REBGV president. “It’ll be important to watch home listing levels over the next few months to see if supply can stay in line with home buyer demand.”

There were 2,987 detached, attached and apartment homes newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in November 2019. This represents a 13.7 per cent decrease compared to the 3,461 homes listed in November 2018 and a 26.7 per cent decrease compared to October 2019 when 4,074 homes were listed.

The total number of homes currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 10,770, a 12.5 per cent decrease compared to November 2018 (12,307) and a 12 per cent decrease compared to October 2019 (12,236).

For all property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for November 2019 is 23.2 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 17.2 per cent for detached homes, 24.9 per cent for townhomes, and 29.3 per cent for apartments.

Generally, analysts say downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12 per cent for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.

“In today’s market, the intensity of home buyer demand depends on neighbourhood, property type, and price point,” Smith said. “To better understand the changing trends in your neighbourhood and property type of choice, it’s important to work with your local REALTOR®.”

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $993,700. This represents a 4.6 per cent decrease from November 2018 and a 1.3 per cent decrease over the past six months.

Sales of detached homes in November 2019 reached 825, a 59.9 per cent increase from the 516 detached sales recorded in November 2018. The benchmark price for a detached home is $1,415,400. This represents a 5.8 per cent decrease from November 2018, a 0.5 per cent decrease over the past six months, and a 0.3 per cent increase compared to October 2019.

Sales of apartment homes reached 1,222 in November 2019, a 50.9 per cent increase compared to the 810 sales in November 2018. The benchmark price of an apartment home is $651,500. This represents a 3.8 per cent decrease from November 2018, a 1.9 per cent decrease over the past six months, and a 0.2 per cent decline compared to October 2019.

Attached home sales in November 2019 totalled 451, a 59.9 per cent increase compared to the 282 sales in November 2018. The benchmark price of an attached home is $772,800. This represents a 4.4 per cent decrease from November 2018, a 0.8 per cent decrease over the past six months, and a 0.2 per cent increase compared to October 2019.

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Provided by: REBGV

We live in our homes very differently then when we try to sell them. Ensuring your home appeals to the broadest of audiences, is critical in getting the maximum dollar value possible. We have all walked into a show home and fallen in love. Ever wonder why? One reason is that developers spend a great deal of time and effort to ensure the home shows well. That is the same sense we want to convey to a buyer when they walk into your home, “Wow this place shows so well!”

So how do we do that? Decluttering and depersonalizing goes a long way to achieve this goal. Decluttering helps make the rooms feel bigger and look “clean.”

For example, removing all the little appliances and the dish rack from the kitchen counters helps to show how much counter space there is. If the counters looked cluttered, it will be difficult for the potential buyer to get a sense of how much counter space there is. They may think, “It seems like these sellers are running out of space, will we have enough space for our stuff?” This is one of the last things you want a buyer to think.

Staging is not only about renting or buying furniture, rather, re-arranging what FAMILY you already have to “show-off” the room. This is where a professional stager can really add some value. You might not like where they suggest the couch goes and it might not even be functional, but it makes the room look bigger and that is the objective. Highlighting your home in the best possible way. ■

“As appeared in the winter 2019/20 edition of Experience Tri-Cities magazine.”

Provided by: Hafez Panju