The trend measure of housing starts in Canada was 196,783 units in March compared to 201,618 in February, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.

“Overall, starts were trending lower in March due to a slowdown in multi-unit construction,” said Bob Dugan, CMHC Chief Economist. “This was the case across the country, except in British Columbia  where declining inventories of new and unsold units as well as low levels of new listings in the resale market spurred builders to start new projects.”

CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of the state of Canada’s housing market. In some situations analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading, as they are largely driven by the multi-unit segment of the market which can vary significantly from one month to the next.

The standalone monthly SAAR for all areas in Canada was 204,251 units in March, down from 219,077 units in February. The SAAR of urban starts decreased by 7.0 per cent in March to 185,022 units. Multiple urban starts decreased by 9.7 per cent to 123,207 units in March and the single-detached urban starts decreased by 1.1 per cent to 61,815 units.

In March, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts decreased in British Columbia, Québec, Atlantic Canada and the Prairies, but increased in Ontario.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 19,299 units.

The topic of foreign ownership in Canada’s housing markets continues to gain in importance and attention. In line with its commitment to sharing insightful information as it becomes available, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) released today its latest Housing Market Insights (HMI) report on this topic.

The report looks at the share of foreign ownership by the age of structure and is meant to be read in tandem with CMHC’s fall 2015 HMI report on Foreign Ownership. Findings reveal that share of foreign ownership is most prominent in new condominium apartment structures in Toronto and to a lesser extent in the Vancouver Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs). The share of foreign ownership is most prominent in the newer structures in Toronto Centre.

Report Highlights

• In the Toronto CMA, the share of foreign ownership is less than 2% for buildings completed before 1990 and 7% for newer constructions completed since 2010. This effect is even more pronounced in Toronto Centre where about 10% of the newer stock is owned by foreigners.
• In the Vancouver CMA, foreign buyers’ share rises from less than 2% for properties built before 1990 to about 6% for those completed since 2010.

At this time, no existing tool can provide a definitive measure of the level of foreign investment in Canada’s housing markets. That said, CMHC regularly engages in discussions internally, as well as with industry experts, as part of its continued efforts to develop a program of work that would better capture data on foreign buyers

“The really interesting thing about this report is the insight it provides into foreign ownership of condominiums in Canada by age of structure. For example, in the downtown core of Toronto, we know that, in buildings completed since 2010, about 10 per cent of those units are owned by foreign buyers. This compares to about 2.3 percent for units completed during the 1990s. This represented another piece in the puzzle of foreign investment in Canada. It remains a top priority for CMHC to continue to get more information on foreign investment in Canada’s Housing market.” Bob Dugan, Chief Economist, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Condominium investors in Vancouver and Toronto display stable characteristics over time. Most are  small-scale investors that own only one secondary unit, nearly onehalf purchased their last secondary unit for rental income and most expect to own their investment property for more than five years, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) 2015 Condominium Owners Survey (COS) released today. 

The annual report, focused on the Vancouver and Toronto Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs), includes survey insights on what motivates condo purchases, how long owners hold onto their units, and the mortgage-financing profile of condominium owners whose primary dwelling is a freehold or condominium unit but who also own at least one secondary condominium unit. These households are referred to in the report as COS investors.

Report Highlights:

• Results are very stable over surveys.
• Nearly one-half of COS investors purchased their last secondary unit for rental income.
• About 60% plan to hold onto their last purchases unit for more than 5 years versus 8% planning to sell their unit in less than 2 years.
• Nearly three quarters have only one unit and roughly 90% do not plan on buying new units in year following the survey.
• 56% expect their units to appreciate, 35% do not expect a significant change and 5% anticipate a decrease in value.
• The share of COS investors with a mortgage on their last purchased unit (at the time of the survey) stood at 53 per cent. This is slightly below the share reported for all home owners (59 per cent) in Statistics Canada’s 2011 National Household Survey.
• The surveys of Toronto and Vancouver produced similar results. However, a larger share of respondents in Toronto expect the value of their units to increase than in Vancouver, but the gap is closing.

COS investors, as defined by CMHC, exclude households that own only one condominium unit in which they reside, as well as households that own a secondary unit but rent their primary residence.

Metro Vancouver* home sales eclipsed 5,000 in March for the first time on record.

Residential property sales in the region totalled 5,173 in March 2016, an increase of 27.4 per cent from the 4,060 sales recorded in March 2015 and an increase of 24 per cent compared to February 2016 when 4,172 homes sold.

Last month’s sales were 56 per cent above the 10-year sales average for the month. "March was the highest selling month the REBGV has ever recorded,” Dan Morrison, REBGV president said. “Today's demand is broad based. Home buyers are active in neighbourhoods across our region."

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Metro Vancouver totalled 6,278 in March 2016. This represents an increase of 5.2 per cent compared to the 5,968 units listed in March 2015 and an 8 per cent increase compared to February 2016 when 5,812 properties were listed.

The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 7,358, a 40.5 per cent decline compared to March 2015 (12,376) and a 0.8 per cent increase compared to February 2016 (7,299).

“Strong job and economic growth in our province, positive net migration and low interest rates are helping to drive this activity," Morrison said.

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $815,000. This represents a 23.2 per cent increase compared to March 2015.

Sales of detached properties in March 2016 reached 2,135, an increase of 24.8 per cent from the 1,711 detached sales recorded in March 2015. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 27.4 per cent from March 2015 to $1,342,500.

Sales of apartment properties reached 2,252 in March 2016, an increase of 38.4 per cent compared to the 1,627 sales in March 2015.The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 18.8 per cent from March 2015 to $462,800.

Attached property sales in March 2016 totalled 786, an increase of 8.9 per cent compared to the 722 sales in March 2015. The benchmark price of an attached unit increased 20.1 per cent from March 2015 to $589,100.

A strong fourth quarter closed 2015 as a record-breaking year in commercial real estate sales in the Lower Mainland.

There were a total of 2,307 commercial real estate sales in the Lower Mainland in 2015. This is a 16.2 per cent increase over the 1,985 sales in 2014, which was the previous five-year record holder.

Commercial real estate sales in 2015 were 15.3 per cent above the region’s five-year sales average.

The total dollar value of commercial real estate sales in the Lower Mainland was $8.389 billion in 2015, nearly 33.7 per cent above the $6.273 billion total in 2014.

“Last year was an extremely strong year for commercial real estate sales, led by growth in both office and retail space, and multi-family properties,” said Darcy McLeod, REBGV president. “Overall, these numbers reflect B.C.’s solid economy and our own residential real estate market’s growth.”

2015 activity by category

Land: There were 819 commercial land sales in 2015, which is a 26 per cent increase from the 650 land sales in 2014. The dollar value of last year’s land sales was $3.825 billion, a 21.8 per cent increase over 2014’s $3.139 billion.
Office and Retail: There were 807 office and retail sales in the Lower Mainland in 2015, which is up 6.6 per cent from the 757 sales in 2014. The dollar value of last year’s office and retail sales was $2.364 billion, a 40.9 per cent increase over 2014’s $1.678 billion.
Industrial: There were 545 industrial land sales in the Lower Mainland in 2015, which is up 15.7 per cent over the 471 sales in 2014. The dollar value of last year’s industrial sales was $988 million, a 20 per cent increase over 2014’s $823 million.
Multi-Family: There were 136 multi-family land sales in the Lower Mainland in 2015, which is up 27.1 per cent over the 107 sales in 2014. The dollar value of last year’s multi-family sales was $1.210 billion, a 91.6 per cent increase over 2014’s $631 million.

The trend measure of housing starts in Canada was 198,880 units in February compared to 199,107 in  January, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.

“The national housing starts trend held steady in February, despite some important regional variances,” said Bob Dugan, CMHC Chief Economist. “Housing starts are trending at a 4-year low in the Prairies where low oil prices have weakened consumer confidence. At the same time, starts are trending at an 8-year high in British Columbia, as new and resale home inventories remain low”.

CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of the state of Canada’s housing market. In some situations analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading, as they are largely driven by the multi-unit segment of the market which can vary significantly from one month to the next.

The standalone monthly SAAR was 212,594 units in February, up from 165,071 units in January. The SAAR of urban starts increased by 30.9 per cent in February to 200,231 units. Multiple urban starts increased by 46.0 per cent to 138,774 units in February and the single-detached urban starts increased by 6.1 per cent to 61,457 units.

In February, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts increased in British Columbia, Ontario, Québec, Atlantic Canada and decreased in the Prairies.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 12,363 units.

The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.

The global economy is progressing largely as the Bank anticipated in its January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Financial market volatility, reflecting heightened concerns about economic momentum, appears to be abating. Although downside risks remain, the Bank still expects global growth to strengthen this year and next. Recent data indicate that the U.S. expansion remains broadly on track. At the same time, the low level of oil prices will continue to dampen growth in Canada and other energy-producing countries.

Prices of oil and other commodities have rebounded in recent weeks. In this context, and in light of shifting expectations for monetary policy in Canada and the United States, the Canadian dollar has appreciated from its recent lows. With these movements, both the price of oil and the exchange rate have averaged close to levels assumed in the January MPR.

Canada’s GDP growth in the fourth quarter was not as weak as expected, but the near-term outlook for the economy remains broadly the same as in January. National employment has held up despite job losses in resource-intensive regions, and household spending continues to underpin domestic demand. Non-energy exports are gathering momentum, particularly in sectors that are sensitive to exchange rate movements. However, overall business investment remains very weak due to retrenchment in the resource sector.

Inflation in Canada is evolving broadly as anticipated. The factors that pushed total CPI inflation up to 2 per cent will likely unwind in the months ahead. Measures of core inflation are at or just below 2 per cent, boosted by the temporary effects of past exchange rate depreciation. Material excess capacity in the Canadian economy will continue to dampen inflation.

An assessment of the impact of the upcoming federal budget’s fiscal measures will be incorporated into the Bank’s April projection. All things considered, the risks to the profile for inflation are roughly balanced. Meanwhile, financial vulnerabilities continue to edge higher, in part due to regional shifts in activity associated with the structural adjustment underway in Canada’s economy. The Bank’s Governing Council judges that the overall balance of risks remains within the zone for which the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate, and the target for the overnight rate remains at 1/2 per cent.

Last month was the highest selling February on record for the Metro Vancouver* housing market.

Residential property sales in the region totalled 4,172 in February 2016, an increase of 36.3 per cent from the 3,061 sales recorded in February 2015 and an increase of 65.6 per cent compared to January 2016 when 2,519 homes sold.

Last month’s sales were 56.3 per cent above the 10-year sales average for the month and rank as the highest February sales total on record.

“We're in a competitive, fast-moving market cycle that favours home sellers,” Darcy McLeod, REBGV president said. “Sustained home buyer competition is keeping upward pressure on home prices across the region.”

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Metro Vancouver totalled 5,812 in February 2016. This represents an increase of 7.1 per cent compared to the 5,425 units listed in February 2015 and a 30.8 per cent increase compared to January 2016 when 4,442 properties were listed.

“We're beginning to see home listings increase as we head toward the spring market, however, additional supply is still needed to meet today's demand,” McLeod said. The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 7,299, a 38.7 per cent decline compared to February 2015 (11,898) and a 10 per cent increase compared to January 2016 (6,635).

The sales-to-active listings ratio for February 2016 is 57.2 per cent. This is indicative of a seller’s market.

Generally, analysts say that downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below the 12 per cent mark, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it reaches the 20 to 22 per cent range in a particular community for a sustained period of time. The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $795,500. This represents a 22.2 per cent increase compared to February 2015.

Sales of detached properties in February 2016 reached 1,778, an increase of 37.2 per cent from the 1,296 detached sales recorded in February 2015. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 27 per cent from February 2015 to $1,305,600. Sales of apartment properties reached 1,790 in February 2016, an increase of 43.9 per cent compared to the 1,244 sales in February 2015.The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 17.7 per cent from February 2015 to $454,600.

Attached property sales in February 2016 totalled 604, an increase of 15.9 per cent compared to the 521 sales in February 2015. The benchmark price of an attached unit increased 17 per cent from February 2015 to $569,600.

The BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator (CLI) broke a string of twoconsecutive declines, eking out a 0.1 point increase to an index value of 120.0 in the fourth quarter of 2015.

On a year-over-year basis, the CLI was 0.4 per cent higher than in 2014.

Although the trend in the CLI is currently pointing to a neutral economic and financial environment for commercial real estate, the overall BC economy remains strong, particularly in comparison to its neighboring provinces.

“Financial market jitters offset solid gains from a strong BC economy,” said BCREA economist Brendon Ogmundson. “We expect that the economic environment will remain supportive of steady growth in the commercial real estate market.”

The CLI was virtually flat to end the year, which in combination with a falling index through the spring and summer has produced a flattening of trend underlying the index. That trend suggests that growth in commercial real estate activity will neither accelerate nor decelerate over the next two to four quarters.

According to statistics released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales rebounded in January 2016 compared to the previous month.

Highlights:
• National home sales edged up by 0.5% from December to January
• Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity was up 8% compared to January 2015.
• The number of newly listed homes retreated by 4.9% from December to January.
• The Canadian housing market has tightened but remains balanced overall.
• The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) rose 7.7% year-over-year in January.
• The national average sale price rose 17% on a year-over-year basis in January;however, excluding British Columbia and Ontario, it edged down 0.3

The number of homes trading hands via MLS® Systems of Canadian real estate Boards and Associations edged up by 0.5 percent in January 2016 compared to December of last year. The monthly increase lifted national sales activity to the highest level since late 2009.

The number of local housing markets was almost equally split between those where sales were up from the month before, and those where sales were down. Monthly sales increases in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and Lower Mainland of British Columbia fuelled the national sales increase and offset monthly sales declines in Calgary, Edmonton and the Okanagan Region.

“Single family home buyers in the GTA and Lower Mainland of British Columbia had been expected to bring forward their purchase decisions before tightened mortgage regulations take effect in February 2016,” said CREA President Pauline Aunger. “If listings in these and nearby markets were not in such short supply, January sales activity would likely have reached even greater heights. Meanwhile, other major urban housing markets have an ample supply of listings, particularly where some home buyers have become increasingly cautious amid an uncertain job market outlook. All real estate is local, and REALTORS® remain your best source for information about sales and listings where you live or might like to in the future.”

“January 2016 picked up where 2015 left off, with single family homes in the GTA and Greater Vancouver in short supply amid strong demand standing in contrast to sidelined home buyers and ample supply in a number of Alberta housing markets,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “Tighter mortgage regulations that take effect in February may shrink the pool of prospective home buyers who qualify for mortgage financing and cause national sales activity to ease in the months ahead.”

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales activity rose eight percent on a year-over-year basis in January 2016 and stood 2.6 percent above the 10-year average for the month of January. Activity was up compared to January 2015 among roughly two-thirds of all local markets. B.C.’s Lower Mainland and the GTA again contributed most to the national increase.

The number of newly listed homes fell by 4.9 percent in January compared to December which more than reversed monthly gains that were posted in the final two months of 2015. Canada’s largest urban housing markets contributed to the monthly decline in new listings, including the Lower Mainland of British Columbia, Calgary, Edmonton, the GTA, Hamilton-Burlington, Ottawa and Montreal.

The national sales-to-new listings ratio rose to 59.2 percent in January due to the drop in the new supply of listings, January's reading was the ratio's highest since November 2009. A salesto- new listings ratio between 40 and 60 percent is generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions, with readings below and above this range indicating buyers’ and sellers’ markets respectively.

The ratio was within this range in about 45 percent of all local housing markets in January. A little over one-third of all local housing markets recorded a ratio above 60 percent; as in recent months, virtually all these housing markets are located in British Columbia and Ontario. 

The number of months of inventory is another important measure of the balance between housing supply and demand. It represents the number of months it would take to completely liquidate current inventories at the current rate of sales activity. 

There were 5.3 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of January 2016, down from 5.4 months at the end of last year and the lowest level in nearly six years. The national figure is being pulled lower by increasingly tighter housing markets in B.C. and Ontario. This is particularly true in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia, the GTA and Hamilton-Burlington, where months of inventory are currently sitting at or below two months.

The Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI rose by 7.73 percent on a year-over-year basis in January – the largest gain in more than five years. Year-over-year price growth accelerated for two-storey single family homes and apartment units.

Two-storey single family homes continue to post the biggest year-over-year price gains (+9.97 percent), followed by onestorey single family homes (+6.86 percent), townhouse/row units (+6.46 percent) and apartment units (+5.16 percent).

Year-over-year price growth continued to range widely among housing markets tracked by the index. Greater Vancouver (+20.56 percent) and the Fraser Valley (+16.94 percent) posted the largest gains, followed by Greater Toronto (+10.69 percent).

Home prices in Victoria posted a year-over-year gain of just over seven percent while Vancouver Island home prices rose by five-and-a-half percent.

By contrast, home prices retreated by about three percent on a year-over-year basis in Calgary, by about two percent in Saskatoon, and by less than one percent in Regina. While home prices have begun to decline in Calgary and Saskatoon only fairly recently, they have been trending lower in Regina since early 2014.

Prices crept higher on a year-over-year basis in Ottawa (+1.10 percent), rose modestly in Greater Montreal (+1.48 percent) and strengthened further in Greater Moncton (+6.57 percent).

The MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) provides a better gauge of price trends than is possible using averages because it is not affected by changes in the mix of sales activity the way that average price is.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in January 2016 was $470,297, up 17.0 percent on a year-over-year basis.

The national average price continues to be pulled upward by sales activity in Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto, which are among Canada’s most active and expensive housing markets. If these two housing markets are excluded from calculations, the average is a more modest $338,392 and the year-over-year gain is reduced to eight percent.

Even then, the gain reflects a tug of war between strong average price gains in housing markets around the GTA and the Lower Mainland of British Columbia versus flat or declining average prices elsewhere in Canada. If British Columbia and Ontario are excluded from calculations, the average price slips even lower to $286,911, representing small a decline of 0.3 percent year-over-year.

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) welcomes the proposed changes to the Property Transfer Tax (PTT) and other measures in Budget 2016 to improve housing affordability in the province and collect better information about property transactions.

The PTT exemption for new homes up to $750,000 will help stimulate supply of new housing and provide more opportunities for home ownership across the province. This exemption is commendable, however with many new housing projects taking years to complete, it may not have the immediate impact desired by the government.

While the new three percent threshold for properties over $2 million is intended to pay for the new home exemption, the province has missed an opportunity to raise the existing threshold levels to provide broader PTT relief for those who cannot afford a newly constructed home and who are not first time homebuyers.

By not indexing the threshold levels, the province ensures that – in an environment of rising home prices – an increasing number of homes will fall within the new three percent threshold, resulting in a higher tax burden on more home buyers.

Collecting and analyzing information on real estate transactions will help the provincial government make fact-based policy decisions. BCREA welcomes this initiative and looks forward to having the data publicly available.

BCREA continues to call on the provincial government to:

o Increase the 1% PTT threshold from $200,000 to $525,000;
o Index the 1% PTT threshold using the MLS® Home Price Index, and make adjustments annually;
o Index the exemption threshold for the First-Time Home Buyers’ Program using the MLS® Home Price Index, and make adjustments annually.

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 5,831 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) last month, up 33.2 per cent from January of last year. Total sales dollar volume was $4.39 billion in January, up 69.1 per cent compared to the previous year.

The average MLS® residential price in the province was up 26.9 per cent year-over-year, to $752,906.

“The BC housing market continues to build on momentum from a very strong 2015,” said Brendon Ogmundson, BCREA Economist. “Heightened demand is being met with the lowest level of supply in a decade, resulting in increased pressure on prices in much of the province.”

The housing market has seen a blistering start to 2016, with housing demand supported by low mortgage rates and rising employment and wage growth in the province. However, MLS® residential sales are forecast to edge lower this year. Total MLS® sales last year were the third highest on record at 102,517. A record 106,310 residential unit sales were recorded in 2005, while the only other year eclipsing 2016 were 2007 when 102,805 unit sales were recorded.