Home sellers were more active in Metro Vancouver’s* housing market in September while home buyer demand remained below the region’s long-term averages.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential home sales in the region totalled 1,687 in September 2022, a 46.4 per cent decrease from the 3,149 sales recorded in September 2021, and a 9.8 per cent decrease from the 1,870 homes sold in August 2022.

Last month’s sales were 35.7 per cent below the 10-year September sales average.

“With the Bank of Canada and other central banks around the globe hiking rates in an effort to stamp out inflation, the cost to borrow funds has risen substantially over a short period,” said Andrew Lis, REBGV director, economics and data analytics. “This has resulted in a more challenging environment for borrowers looking to purchase a home, and home sales across the region have dropped accordingly.”

There were 4,229 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in September 2022. This represents an 18.2 per cent decrease compared to the 5,171 homes listed in September 2021 and a 27.1 per cent increase compared to August 2022 when 3,328 homes were listed.

The total number of homes currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 9,971, an eight per cent increase compared to September 2021 (9,236) and a 3.2 per cent increase compared to August 2022 (9,662).

“With fewer homes selling and new listings continuing to come to market, inventory is beginning to accumulate, providing buyers with more selection compared to last year,” Lis said. “With more supply and less demand within this market cycle, residential home prices have edged down in the region over the last six months.”

For all property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for September 2022 is 16.9 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 12.4 per cent for detached homes, 18.4 per cent for townhomes, and 20.9 per cent for apartments.

Generally, analysts say downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12 per cent for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,155,300. This represents a 3.9 per cent increase over September 2021, an 8.5 per cent decline over the past six months, and a 2.1 per cent decline compared to August 2022.

Sales of detached homes in September 2022 reached 525, a 44.7 per cent decrease from the 950 detached sales recorded in September 2021. The benchmark price for a detached home is $1,906,400. This represents a 3.8 per cent increase from September 2021 and a 2.4 per cent decrease compared to August 2022.

Sales of apartment homes reached 888 in September 2022, a 45.2 per cent decrease compared to the 1,621 sales in September 2021. The benchmark price of an apartment home is $728,500. This represents a 6.2% per cent increase from September 2021 and a 1.6 per cent decrease compared to August 2022.

Attached home sales in September 2022 totalled 274, a 52.6 per cent decrease compared to the 578 sales in September 2021. The benchmark price of an attached home is $1,048,900. This represents a 9.1 per cent increase from September 2021 and a 1.9 per cent decrease compared to August 2022.

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Provided by: REBGV

Highlights:

• Bond yields on a rollercoaster ride but mortgage rates remain flat

. • Is the Canadian economy slowing?

• When will the Bank of Canada reverse course?

Mortgage Rate Outlook

Volatility continued in the Canadian mortgage market over the third quarter. Financial markets are currently digesting a complex economic environment as still high, though perhaps peaking, inflation collides with anxiety over a potential recession. That anxiety has expressed itself as volatility across Canadian bond markets with yields on Canadian government debt plunging before rapidly recovering in the second half of August. However, the Canadian yield curve has inverted as the level of long-term interest rates is now lower than short-term rates, a situation that in the past has heralded at least a slowdown in the Canadian economy, if not outright recession.

Five-year bond yields briefly declined through July, only to once again recover their previous 2022 highs as still rising core inflation prompted a reversal in expectations for monetary policy. Those expectations were solidified when the Bank of Canada raised rates by 75 basis points at its September meeting, signalling further rate increases to come. Despite the volatility in government bond yields, five-year fixed mortgage rates have remained relatively placid. We anticipate that five-year fixed mortgage rates will hover around 5.3 per cent for the remainder of the year, with the possibility of falling should recession fears amplify next year. Canadian variable rates are expected to increase to 5.55 per cent in the fourth quarter as the Bank of Canada continues its tightening cycle. However, we do anticipate some monetary easing by the end of 2023 as the Bank of Canada adjusts to a slowing economy.

Economic Outlook

Growth in the second quarter of 2022 registered 3.3 per cent at an annualized rate from the prior quarter, with real GDP rising for the fourth consecutive month. GDP growth in the second quarter, though still strong, is showing signs of slowing. Growth was lower than the Bank of Canada’s expectations and likely contracted slightly in July. The Canadian unemployment rate has ticked higher in recent months as job growth in Canada turned negative.

The Canadian labour market has shed about 115,000 jobs over the past three months, a potential sign the economy is slowing. That slowdown will likely continue, particularly in interest rate-sensitive sectors like housing, as the Bank forges ahead with its tightening cycle. Still, the Canadian economy is set to grow about 3 per cent in 2022. The bulk of the projected slowdown is likely to appear in early- to mid-2023 as higher interest rates constrain broad economic activity. By then, we should see at least some relief on inflation as the impact of high gas prices fades, supply chains are finally healed and higher interest rates reduce excess demand. That said, inflation has proved to be quite persistent over the past year and shows signs of more broad-based price pressure.

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Provided by: BCREA

Lush Forest Outlook

One UniverCity Crescent

3 Bed, 2 Bath 1290sqft

Priced at $778,800

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Lush forest and mountain top views, bright, spacious & in impeccable condition! This is the home you have been searching for. Welcome to this true 3 bed, 2 bath, 1290sqft luxury home, in prestigious One University Cr., located in UniverCity, Vancouver's premier lifestyle neighborhood. Features: freshly painted, East/West exposure, 2 large covered balconies, engineered floors, 9’ ceilings, open kitchen w/SS apps, quartz counters & breakfast bar & a cozy fireplace. The large master has his/her walk-through closets, 5pc ensuite w/soaker & separate shower. Parking, locker & well-appointed complex amenities w/gym. Close to: transit, shopping, indoor/outdoor rec. & a host of perks available only to UniverCity residents. Act Now! Call for your private showing.

Bright & Thoughtful Layout

4 Bed, 2 bath, 1552sqft

Priced at $748,800

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Welcome to Summerleaf TH complex, located in the heart of Panorama Village of Sullivan Heights. Close to all amenities: schools, shopping, transit, rec., YMCA & much more. This bright south facing 3lvl/4bed/2bath, home will not disappoint. Advantageously located in the rear of the complex, with no homes behind creating a private setting with fenced yard w/covered patio; perfect for kids, Fido & year around use. Main; laminate floors, newer SS appls, eating area w/family rm & living/dining areas. Kitchen has breakfast bar & access to balcony. Up: spacious master w/4pc ensuite, 2 well sized rms, 4pc bath, laundry & laminate floors. Down: large rm w/window & yard access; excellent for 4th bed, rec rm or home office. Bonus: oversized single car garage, parking skirt & 3rd parking pad. Act Now!

Excellent Layout

2 Bed, 2 Bath, 989sqft

Priced at $668,800

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Corner unit, over height ceilings, private treed outlook & plenty of natural light. This 2bed/2bath/989sqft home shows well & won't disappoint. Located in Veritas, a 6 year young complex in the Heart of SFU, UniverCity; Vancouver's premier lifestyle neighborhood. Features: welcoming entry, open layout, excellent rm separation, laminate & plush carpets, large kitchen w/SS appls & breakfast bar w/access to fully covered balcony. The master fits king size bed, has walk-in closet & ensuite with his/her sinks & oversized shower w/bench. The well sized 2nd bed offers plenty of closet space. Bonus; envious parking spot location, locker, pet & rental friendly. Close to: transit, shopping, indoor/outdoor rec & a host of perks available only to UniverCity residents. Act Now! Call for showings.

Spacious 1 Bed Home

Excellent Condition

Priced at $488,000

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Bright, spacious and open court-yard views! This Southeast facing 1 bed, 1 bath, 608sqft unit is perfect to call home. Emerald Park Place is a pet friendly complex with a well-equipped gym and amenity room, centrally located to shopping, recreation, transit, Skytrain and every amenity you could need. Features: open plan, freshly painted, laminate flooring, generous bedroom with excellent closet space, spacious kitchen with plenty of cupboard & counter space, newer stainless appliances, breakfast bar, newer washer/dryer & 4pc bath. Enjoy the large windows in both the living area and bedroom and the well-sized fully covered balcony for year-round BBQs. Bonus: huge in-suite storage that could be used as a den & 1 parking. Act Now! Call for your private showing.

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 5,645 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in August 2022, a decrease of 40.8 per cent from August 2021. The average MLS® residential price in BC was $918,378, a 2.1 per cent increase from $899,428 recorded in August 2021. Total sales dollar volume was $5.2 billion, a 39.6 per cent decline from the same time last year.

“Housing activity across the province remains well below normal but is showing signs of stabilizing,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “While inventory is up over last year, active listings have somewhat stalled at relatively low levels in most major markets and as a result we are seeing a healthier balance compared to last year.”

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 22.1 per cent from the same period in 2021 to $63.8 billion. Residential unit sales were down 30.5 per cent to 62,502 units, while the average MLS® residential price was up 12 per cent to $1.02 million.

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Provided by: BCREA

Third Quarter – September 2022

The dramatic rise in Canadian mortgage rates has prompted an equally dramatic shift in the BC housing market. While the year started with home sales on pace to exceed 100,000 unit sales for a second consecutive year, aggressive monetary tightening in response to the highest inflation in decades quickly sent demand to the sidelines as five-year mortgage rates more than doubled. Compounding the impact of rising mortgage rates, mortgage stress test requirements mean many potential buyers have to qualify at more than 7 per cent.

There are some signs, however, that fixed mortgage rates have now peaked. Expectations for the Bank of Canada to raise its overnight rate to above 3 per cent have been priced into mortgage rates since the early spring. But, with the Bank of Canada firm in its intent to lower inflation, both fixed and variable mortgage rates are expected to stay elevated over the next year. As a result, home sales will finish 2022 much weaker than last year’s record-breaking totals and that weakness will likely carry into 2023. We anticipate that provincial home sales will end 2022 down 35 per cent to 81,900 units and fall a further 5 per cent to 77,790 units next year.

With sales far below normal levels, inventory has been accumulating, though from record-low levels at the start of the year. Weak sales and an increase in inventory mean that some market segments, largely more expensive markets, have tipped into buyers’ market territory. Consequently, average MLS® home prices have come down from peak levels, somewhat due to major shifts in the composition of sales toward less expensive homes, but also largely as a result of significantly depressed sales activity. We anticipate that, owing to a steep increase at the start of the year, home prices averaged across all of 2022 will still end the year up 4.4 per cent but average price levels will be slightly lower in 2023.

While the housing market is currently feeling the weight of higher interest rates, the downturn is unlikely to be long-lived as BC’s strong population growth combined with extremely favourable demographics means there will be no shortage of demand for housing in the province.

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Provided by: BCREA

Metro Vancouver’s* housing market is experiencing a quieter summer season marked by reduced sale and listing activity.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential home sales in the region totalled 1,870 in August 2022, a 40.7 per cent decrease from the 3,152 sales recorded in August 2021, and a 0.9 per cent decrease from the 1,887 homes sold in July 2022.

Last month’s sales were 29.2 per cent below the 10-year August sales average.

“With inflationary pressure and interest rates on the rise, home buyer and seller activity shifted below our long-term seasonal averages this summer,” Andrew Lis, REBGV’s director, economics and data analytics said. “This shift in market conditions caused prices to edge down over the past four months.”

There were 3,328 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in August 2022. This represents a 17.5 per cent decrease compared to the 4,032 homes listed in August 2021 and a 16 per cent decrease compared to July 2022 when 3,960 homes were listed.

The total number of homes currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 9,662, a 7.3 per cent increase compared to August 2021 (9,005) and a 6.1 per cent decrease compared to July 2022 (10,288).

“Home buyers and sellers are taking more time to assess what this changing landscape means for their housing needs,” Lis said. “Preparation is critical in today’s market. Work with your Realtor to assess what today’s home prices, financing options, and other considerations mean for you.”

For all property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for August 2022 is 19.4 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 12.2 per cent for detached homes, 25.3 per cent for townhomes, and 24.8 per cent for apartments.

Generally, analysts say downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12 per cent for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,180,500. This represents a 7.4 per cent increase over August 2021 and a 2.2 per cent decrease compared to July 2022. Sales of detached homes in August 2022 reached 517, a 45.3 per cent decrease from the 945 detached sales recorded in August 2021.

The benchmark price for a detached home is $1,954,100. This represents a 7.9 per cent increase from August 2021 and a 2.3 per cent decrease compared to July 2022.

Sales of apartment homes reached 998 in August 2022, a 38.8 per cent decrease compared to the 1,631 sales in August 2021. The benchmark price of an apartment home is $740,100. This represents an 8.7 per cent increase from August 2021 and a two per cent decrease compared to July 2022.

Attached home sales in August 2022 totalled 355, a 38.4 per cent decrease compared to the 576 sales in August 2021. The benchmark price of an attached home is $1,069,100. This represents a 12.7 per cent increase from August 2021 and a 2.5 per cent decrease compared to July 2022.

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Provided by: REBGV

BRIGHT Corner unit with maximum light & huge windows! Bedrooms on opposite sides of the home for extra privacy, Huge master bedroom with luxury walk in closet, Spacious foyer & entry, open concept kitchen/living room, Gourmet kitchen with SS Appliances, large island eating area &separate dining/nook or office! Upgrades include new flooring, fridge, baseboards, fixtures, high end Sherwin Williams paint, Mysa smart home thermostats,LED lighting+ More! Steps to Patina Brewery, grab a growler & Bring your doggy's or kitty's! trails, river, restaurants, shopping & transportation. Gates park just around the corner, easy access to highway & Coquitlam Center. Rainscreened !WOW! Over 1,050 SqFt 2 bed, 2 full bath, 2 parking + Locker Home. Pet Friendly!

Listing Offered by: Keller Williams Elite Realty

Analysis: ‘Buyers don’t know whether to purchase yet. And sellers don’t know if they should sell for less’

From all corners come the forecasts of lower housing prices in Canada. Everyone is nervous.

The predictions portend gloom for many who bought homes in recent years, particularly over-leveraged investors. But drastically reduced prices also signal a possible opening for middle-income earners so far barricaded out of ownership.

The Bank of Canada is expected to again hike the prime rate in September, to about 3.5 per cent. This will further deflate the housing bubble exacerbated by the pandemic, when the bank drastically lowered rates and printed new money, and the Liberal government went further than almost any other to hand out subsidies.

“Both buyers and sellers are now running for cover,” says veteran Vancouver realtor David Hutchinson.

“Buyers don’t know whether to purchase yet. And sellers don’t know if they should sell for less than they would have received earlier in the year. Or to wait until a more favourable market.”

All players are weighing their shaky options while The Desjardins Group is calling for a national 25-per-cent price drop from the peak. And the Royal Bank of Canada is expecting the steepest drop in more than 40 years.

For different reasons Canadians are feeling dark about housing.

More than half the residents in Vancouver,  Toronto and Montreal regions think prices are “outrageously high.” At the same time 25 per cent of homeowners say they will have to sell their home if interest rates go up further, according to Manulife. And no one should forget the millions of tenants fretting about rapidly rising rents.

Here’s some help on navigating Canada’s stormy housing waters.

Some are ‘safe’

Two of three Canadians own their own homes. And 35 per cent of them no longer have a mortgage: They’re fine.

And, despite the debt crunch, the real estate market, especially in Metro Vancouver, still lacks listings. That’s keeping prices a bit steadier than if more homeowners were feeling pressure to sell immediately.

“On the ground things are pretty weak here in Metro Vancouver,” says analyst Steve Saretsky.  “Greater Vancouver homes are selling anywhere from 10 to 20 per cent lower than peak valuations in February.” Vancouver’s suburbs have been hit the hardest.

But while analyst John Pasalis notes Toronto’s prices have already collapsed to pre-pandemic levels, Saretsky says if Metro Vancouver’s “bear market is going to continue inventory needs to pick up. There are fewer houses on the market than this time a year ago.”

Worries will grow for homeowners with cheap mortgages, however, if they are forced to refinance or move because of a job, divorce or another factor.

Meet the most anxious

Investors, people who already own at least one home, were responsible for more than one of five Canadian purchases during the extremely low rates of the pandemic, with their proportion soaring highest in Toronto.

Individuals in Canada who made it their business to buy and rent several dwellings, while waiting for prices to go up, are often over-leveraged. For instance, any who bought into pre-sale condo towers, which were not yet built, will be hammered when they realize they have to fork over the full cost of the completed unit as mortgages rates start coming in between five to seven per cent.

Even while giant corporations have been snapping up properties, many often refer to how “mom and pop” investors get hit first by falling prices. Despite the “cute moniker,” Hutchinson says, “I haven’t really seen this elusive mom and pop investor. But I’ve seen a lot of investors. Some defend investors by saying, ‘Look, they scoop up properties and thereby provide much-needed rentals.’ In reality, investors drive up prices and force buyers into overpriced rental properties. People need to own their own homes.”

Rental squeeze tightens

With the property investment craze collapsing in China, the country now has 50 million empty apartments. But Canada’s falling real-estate prices haven’t necessarily led to a glut of barren units. Few dwellings are empty in B.C., especially where vacancy taxes have been in effect for several years.

Unlike in China, the cost of renting in Canada is actually soaring again. That’s possible salvation for at least some overstretched investors. But it’s making existence hard for the one-third of Canadians who are tenants, especially those currently on the lookout for a place.

Rental prices are up seven per cent across the country compared to a year earlier, according to Rentals.ca. The median rent is $1,750.

And B.C. rental costs shot up much more shockingly than that — by 25 per cent. A two-bedroom Vancouver apartment is the most pricey in the country – at $3,597 per month. The Toronto equivalent comes in second, at $3,115. Meanwhile, Richmond is third at $2,703.

Of note is that the cost of being a tenant in a condo has gone up much more rapidly than for those in a purpose-built rental building, for several reasons.

“I’m not sure if these rental increases will keep condo investors afloat, considering they still have increased costs of borrowing, taxes and maintenance fees,” Hutchinson says. “But it’s certainly a bit of a lifeline for them.”

High immigration will soften Canada’s housing price crash

The difference between China’s investors and those in Canada is that there is virtually no immigration to the populous country. So there is little demand from “new” buyers.

In contrast, RBC chief economist Robert Hogue said Wednesday that high immigration rates will be “a powerful counterforce in Canada’s housing market correction.”

“We expect the number of Canadian households to rise by 730,000 by 2024 compared to 2021. Immigration is key to this surge. Ottawa’s targets are set to bring in a record 1.3 million new permanent residents,” Hogue said.

While the demand from newcomers from India, China and France will soften the price collapse and provide new tenants, many business economists criticize Ottawa for failing to come up with any affordability plan for young Canadians desperate to buy — or for battered renters.

With international student numbers in Canada also rebounding to 700,000 a year, plus a large new wave of temporary workers, Hutchinson is among the many lamenting how the Liberals “are pushing in-migration to an all-time high in an obvious attempt at propping up a lagging economy.”

It’s not very creative, Hutchinson said. “It comes at the expense of affordable housing. And will definitely put more stress on housing supply and affordability. In most instances it will affect those who need shelter the most — first-time home buyers.”

Provided by : Douglas Todd for the Vancouer Sun

Spacious 1 Bed Home
Excellent Condition
Priced at $439,800

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Enjoy the peace & tranquility this area has to offer. Welcome to UniverCity at SFU, Vancouver premier lifestyle neighborhood. This 1 bed, 1 bath 624sqft home, located in Novo II; a concrete, rental and pet friendly building will not disappoint. Perfect for investors, first time buyers, students & everyone else in between. Features: an abundance of natural light, an open layout, granite counters, SS appliances, laminate floors, newer front load washer & dryer & covered balcony. The large bedroom has plenty of closet space and overlooks the balcony. Close to: transit, shopping, indoor/outdoor recreation & a host of perks available only to UniverCity residences. Do not miss your chance to enjoy living in this great neighborhood!