The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 9,275 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in July, down 6.3 per cent from the same period last year. Total sales dollar volume was $6.48 billion, down 1.3 per cent from July 2016. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $698,761, a 5.3 per cent increase from the same period last year.

“Strong economic growth, an expanding population base and a lack of supply continue to drive BC home sales and prices this summer,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “However, home sales have edged back 4 per cent since May, with active listings beginning to bounce back from a 20-year low,” added Muir. “If these trends continue, it may signal that more balanced market conditions could emerge before the end of the year.”

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 19.3 per cent to $45.6 billion, when compared with the same period in 2016. Residential unit sales declined 17.0 per cent to 64,107 units, while the average MLS® residential price was down 2.8 per cent to $710,921.

July 2017 Year-to-Date BC Residential Multiple Listing Service® Data by Board

July 2017 Residential Average Price, Active Listings and Sales-to-Active-Listings Data by Board 

 *Numbers may not add due to rounding

July 2017 BC Residential Multiple Listing Service® Data by Board

 *Numbers may not add due to rounding

**NOTE: The Northern Lights Real Estate Board (NLREB) became part of the South Okanagan Real Estate Board (SOREB) on May 1, 2011.

* Numbers may not add due to rounding

BCREA is the professional association for about 22,000 REALTORS® in BC, focusing on provincial issues that impact real estate. Working with the province’s 11 real estate boards, BCREA provides continuing professional education, advocacy, economic research and standard forms to help REALTORS® provide value for their clients. 

To demonstrate the profession’s commitment to improving Quality of Life in BC communities, BCREA supports policies that help ensure economic vitality, provide housing opportunities, preserve the environment, protect property owners and build better communities with good schools and safe neighbourhoods.

For detailed statistical information, contact your local real estate board. MLS® is a cooperative marketing system used only by Canada’s real estate boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.

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The trend in housing starts was 217,550 units in July 2017, compared to 215,175 units in June 2017, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This trend measure is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.

“In July, Canada’s pace in housing construction ramped up for a seventh consecutive month,” said Bob Dugan, CMHC’s chief economist. “British Columbia and Alberta were the main contributors to the higher trend in housing starts. While BC’s construction coincides with near-record low completed and unsold units in the past few months, Alberta’s inventory of new unsold homes is ramping up, highlighting the need for managing inventories.”

Monthly highlights

Toronto

Total housing starts in the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area trended lower in July. Lower trending apartment and single-detached starts were mainly responsible for the decline. Overall, total housing starts were still trending close to the average level seen so far this year. Strong increases in semi-detached and town home starts pointed to affordability concerns driving demand for less expensive housing types.

Vancouver

Vancouver CMA housing starts were up slightly in July due to the construction of more townhomes and apartments getting underway. The largest increase in construction activity occurred in Burnaby, New Westminster and Coquitlam, as the relative affordability of more modestly priced townhomes and apartments in these communities supported consumer demand. The number of units under construction in the Vancouver CMA remains near record highs, and developers will be keeping an eye on market conditions as these projects are completed in the coming year.

Calgary

After a slow start, the trend in new home construction this year has increased, moving closer in line with historical averages. Multiple starts in particular have been strong in recent months, including July, despite inventories sitting at near record highs. If the current pace of production does not ease, there is the possibility that inventories will stay elevated for an extended period of time.

Ottawa

July housing starts trended up on the back of strong multiple construction. Multiple starts this year have been driven by the rise in rental apartment starts, which to July reached about 1.5 times their level for 2016 as a whole. Builders are diversifying high-rise product as a substantial number of completed condominium apartment units remain unsold. In addition, an ageing rental stock, and robust rental demand are contributing to increased building activity for rental units.

Gatineau

With construction getting under way on several large rental projects at the same time, housing starts in the Gatineau area were up considerably in July. The rising demand, supported in part by stronger employment, will help residential construction stay on an upward trend over the coming months.

London

Single-detached starts in both the City of London and London CMA posted the highest levels for the month of July since 2007. The continued elevated number of single-detached starts is driven largely by demand spillover from the resale market, which has seen a dramatic increase in the sales of homes priced at $500,000 and over. Also, the price gap between single-detached homes in London and comparable homes in Toronto has continued to remain wide, making London an attractive destination for buyers from the Greater Toronto Area.

Greater Sudbury

Housing starts in Greater Sudbury trended lower in July, due to a decline in both single detached and multiple starts. The trend dipped for the seventh consecutive month, reflecting declines in full-time employment and a healthy supply in the resale market.

Nova Scotia

Construction in both the singles and multiples markets in Halifax continues to show strength in July with year-over-year starts increasing by 15% and 31%, respectively. Year-to-date, the singles market has witnessed the strongest number of starts since 2013, while the multiples market continues to be a driver of residential construction, especially on the Halifax Peninsula and Mainland North regions.

CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of Canada’s housing market. In some situations analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading, as they are largely driven by the multi-unit segment of the market which can vary significantly from one month to the next.

The standalone monthly SAAR of housing starts for all areas in Canada was 222,324 units in July, up from 212,948 units in June. The SAAR of urban starts increased by 5.5 per cent in July to 206,122 units. Multiple urban starts increased by 10.4 per cent to 141,950 units in July and single-detached urban starts decreased by 3.9 per cent, to 64,172 units.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 16,202 units.

Preliminary Housing Starts data are also available in English and French through our website and through CMHC’s Housing Market Information Portal. Our analysts are also available to provide further insight into their respective markets.

As Canada’s authority on housing, CMHC contributes to the stability of the housing market and financial system, provides support for Canadians in housing need, and offers objective housing research and information to Canadian governments, consumers and the housing industry.

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Home buyer activity returned to more typical summer levels in Metro Vancouver* last month.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales in the region totalled 2,960 in July 2017, an 8.2 per cent decrease from the 3,226 sales recorded in July 2016, and a decrease of 24 per cent compared to June 2017 when 3,893 homes sold.

Last month’s sales were 0.7 per cent above the 10-year July sales average.

“Housing demand is inconsistent across the region right now. Pockets of the market are still receiving multiple offers and others are not. It depends on price, property type, and location,” Jill Oudil, REBGV president said. “For example, it’s taking twice as long, on average, for a detached home to sell compared to both townhomes and condominiums.”

There were 5,256 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in July 2017. This represents a 0.3 per cent increase compared to the 5,241 homes listed in July 2016 and an 8.1 per cent decrease compared to June 2017 when 5,721 homes were listed.

The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 9,194, a 10.1 per cent increase compared to July 2016 (8,351) and an eight per cent increase compared to June 2017 (8,515).

“Because home sale activity decreased to more historically normal levels in July, the selection of homes for sale in the region was able to edge above 9,000 for the first time this year,” Oudil, said.

For all property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for July 2017 is 32.2 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 16.9 per cent for detached homes, 44.9 per cent for townhomes, and 62 per cent for condominiums.

Generally, analysts say that downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below the 12 per cent mark for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,019,400. This represents an 8.7 per cent increase over July 2016 and a 2.1 per cent increase compared to June 2017.

Sales of detached properties in July 2017 reached 949, a decrease of 11.9 per cent from the 1,077 detached sales recorded in July 2016. The benchmark price for detached properties is $1,612,400. This represents a 1.9 per cent increase from July 2016 and a 1.5 per cent increase compared to June 2017.

Sales of apartment properties reached 1,468 in July 2017, a decrease of 8.4 per cent compared to the 1,602 sales in July 2016. The benchmark price of an apartment property is $616,600. This represents an 18.5 per cent increase from July 2016 and a 2.7 per cent increase compared to June 2017.

Attached property sales in July 2017 totalled 543, a decrease of 0.7 per cent compared to the 547 sales in July 2016. The benchmark price of an attached unit is $763,700. This represents an 11.9 per cent increase from July 2016 and a 2.4 per cent increase compared to June 2017.

*Editor’s Note: Areas covered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver include: Whistler, Sunshine Coast,
Squamish, West Vancouver, North Vancouver, Vancouver, Burnaby, New Westminster, Richmond, Port Moody,
Port Coquitlam, Coquitlam, Pitt Meadows, Maple Ridge, and South Delta.

The real estate industry is a key economic driver in British Columbia. In 2016, 39,943 homes changed ownership in the Board’s area, generating $2.5 billion in economic spin-off activity and an estimated 17,600 jobs. The total dollar value of residential sales transacted through the MLS® system in Greater Vancouver totalled $40 billion in 2016.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver is an association representing more than 13,500 REALTORS® and their companies. The Board provides a variety of member services, including the Multiple Listing Service®. For more information on real estate, statistics, and buying or selling a home, contact a local REALTOR® or visit
www.rebgv.org.

Canada's long housing boom has drawn thousands into the sector, from realtors and home stagers to construction workers, and a looming slowdown threatens to trigger an exodus that could wipe out many of those jobs and force the economy to shift down.

While housing has long been the main engine of Canadian growth, economists say a drop in home sales has already started to weigh on the economy and if price declines follow, consumer spending and jobs will suffer.

"To a lot of people, it is a get-rich-quick scheme," Toronto realtor David Fleming said about the real estate market. "But history shows when the market turns, half of the agents leave."

Realtors' ranks in Canada's largest city and hottest housing market have surged 77 percent since 2008 to more than 48,000 - nearly 10 times the pace of Canadian job growth. Nationwide, that number has risen 26.9 percent.

By comparison, there are over 13,500 realtors in Chicago, according to the Chicago Association of Realtors.

With Canadian home construction jobs rising at nearly the same pace as real estate jobs, housing has become the top driver of employment and economic growth, accounting for the bulk of Canada's economic growth last year.

As the nearly one million housing sector jobs now far outstrip those in oil and gas extraction and mining combined and approach the size of the manufacturing sector, economists brace for a painful reckoning if the housing slowdown turns into a long correction.

More than half of the analysts polled by Reuters in May said a sharp housing correction was somewhat or very likely in Toronto and Vancouver, but unlikely nationally. 

Recent data showed nation-wide home resales fell 6.7 percent in June, the largest monthly drop since 2010 and the third straight monthly decline as sales in Toronto tumbled, and sales are expected to slow further as interest rates rise. 

CONSUMPTION HIT

While most housing bears have been focusing on how much home prices could drop, economists are also trying to work out how badly a resulting decline in consumer spending and housing jobs could hurt the broad economy.

Their forecasts range from 0.2 percentage points to 0.5 percentage points shaved off Canada's economic growth per year, with the impact spread over a number of years.

"The jobs slowdown will not occur in a single month, but over a six-month to one-year period," said Frances Donald, senior economist at Manulife Asset Management. "And the hit to consumption may take up to two years to really be felt."

The Bank of Canada has forecast the contribution of housing to economic growth will fall from 0.3 percentage points this year to zero in 2018 and a 0.1 percentage point subtraction in 2019. The Royal Bank of Canada and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce both expect housing to reduce next year's growth by 0.2 percentage points.

David Madani, economist at Capital Economics in Toronto and a well-known housing bear who predicts prices will drop by as much as 40 percent, expects the fallout will be deeper and last longer, reducing Canada's annual growth rate by half a percentage point over the next five years.

With the central bank forecasting GDP growth of just 2.0 percent in 2018 and 1.6 percent in 2019, such a drag could bring the economy closer to recession.

Veteran realtors who have seen the industry swell with inexperienced agents have no doubts that a slowdown will decimate their ranks.

"It is definitely overpopulated," said Shawn Zigelstein, a realtor in the York Region, north of Toronto. "A downturn will weed out of some of those agents who got into the business for the wrong reasons."

Already, many realtors are struggling in the crowded market. Nearly half of Toronto's licensed realtors did fewer than two deals last year, according to Brian Torry, general manager at Bosley Real Estate in Toronto. Less than a third did five or more transactions.

"It is a tough industry to break into," said Jared Gardner, 38, who got his real estate license last year and works in the Toronto area.

Fleming believes many agents are already making less than minimum wage once license, membership and brokerage fees are paid, and it can only get tougher if sales continue to dry up.

Realtors in Alberta, Canada's oil patch, know just how tough.

Following an oil price slump in 2015, sales in Calgary's once booming housing market fell 5.5 percent from 2015 to 2016 and only have begun to stabilize, according to the Calgary Real Estate Board. There are 5.4 percent fewer realtors in the city now than there were in 2008.

Alberta's experience serves as a reminder of what could be next for Toronto and Vancouver, where housing buoyed local economies and job markets for eight years.

History also carries a warning. In Canada's last major housing downturn, real estate employment plunged 18 percent between 1989 and 1992 and took until 1997 to recover, according to Statistics Canada.

"We've had a multiple-year expansion driven by housing, and we're probably going to have a multi-year headwind to growth driven by a decline in housing," said Manulife's Donald.

Provided by: Andrea Hopkins for MSN Money

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Home sales in June posted their largest monthly drop in seven years, driven by a plunge in the Greater Toronto market, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Monday, the latest evidence that a cool-down in the housing sector is taking hold.

Transactions last month were down 6.7 per cent compared with May on a national basis, the third consecutive monthly decline, with the Greater Toronto Area registering a 15.1 per cent drop.

Home sales are down 14.1 per cent from the record level set in March.

"Changes to Ontario housing policy made in late April have clearly prompted many homebuyers in the Greater Golden Horseshoe region to take a step back and assess how the housing market absorbs the changes," CREA chief economist Gregory Klump said in a statement.

"The recent increase in interest rates could reinforce a lack of urgency to purchase or, alternatively, move some buyers off the sidelines before their pre-approved mortgage rate expires. In the meantime, some move-up buyers who previously purchased a home before first selling may become more motivated to reduce their asking price rather than carry two mortgages."

Sales were down from the previous month in 70 per cent of all local markets measured by CREA, including the Lower Mainland in B.C., Montreal and Quebec City.

The Ontario government moved earlier this year to cool the Toronto real estate market, bringing in more than a dozen measures including a 15 per cent tax on foreign buyers. Since then, sales in Canada's largest city have slowed.

Separately, mortgage interest rates have started to rise in recent days. That came after the Bank of Canada raised its key interest rate last week by 25 basis points to 0.75 per cent, a move that prompted the big banks to increase their prime rates. Rates for new fixed-rate mortgages also ticked up in anticipation of the central bank rate hike.

Compared with a year ago, national home sales in June were down 11.4 per cent.

TD Bank economist Diana Petramala said that after growing this year, home prices are expected to fall next year.

"Much of that weakness will be concentrated in markets in Ontario and B.C., where households are particularly sensitive to higher mortgage rates given the stretched affordability," Petramala wrote in a note to clients.

"Elsewhere in the country, the improving economic conditions should help offset some of the impact of gradual interest rate hikes, with home prices and sales expected to trend higher."

The national average price for a home sold in June was $504,458, up 0.4 per cent from a year ago. Excluding Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto, the national average price was $394,660.

The aggregate composite Multiple Listing Service home price index for June was up 15.8 per cent compared with a year ago.

Provided by: Gary Wong with the Canadian Press

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