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July 23 from 2 to 4

 

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According to statistics released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales cooled further in June 2017.

 

Highlights:

  • National home sales dropped 6.7% from May to June.
  • Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity in June stood 11.4% below last June’s level.
  • The number of newly listed homes edged back by 1.5% from May to June.
  • The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) was up 15.8% year-over-year (y-o-y) in June 2017.
  • The national average sale price edged up just 0.4% y-o-y in June.
 

The number of homes sold via Canadian MLS® Systems fell 6.7% in June 2017, the largest monthly decline since June 2010. With sales having also declined in each of the two previous months, activity in June came in 14.1% below the record set in March.


June sales were down from the previous month in 70% of all local markets, led overwhelmingly by the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). Monthly declines were also posted in all surrounding Greater Golden Horseshoe housing markets, the Lower Mainland of British Columbia, Kingston, Montreal and Quebec City.

 

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity was down 11.4% on a year-over-year (y-o-y) basis, much of which reflected a significant drop in GTA sales activity. Nonetheless, half of all local housing markets recorded y-o-y sales declines. By contrast, Calgary, Edmonton, London and St. Thomas, Ottawa, Montreal and Halifax-Dartmouth topped the list of Canadian cities where home sales surpassed year-ago levels.

 

“Canadian economic and job growth have been improving, which is good news for housing demand,” said CREA President Andrew Peck. “However, it also means that interest rates have begun to rise, which may impact homebuyer confidence – particularly in pricier markets like Toronto and Vancouver where recent housing policies had already moved potential buyers to the sidelines. In lower priced markets, the effect of higher interest rates on housing affordability will be relatively muted. All real estate is local, and REALTORS® remain your best source for information about sales and listings where you live or might like to.”

 

“Changes to Ontario housing policy made in late April have clearly prompted many homebuyers in the Greater Golden Horseshoe region to take a step back and assess how the housing market absorbs the changes,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “The recent increase in interest rates could reinforce a lack of urgency to purchase or, alternatively, move some buyers off the sidelines before their pre-approved mortgage rate expires. In the meantime, some move-up buyers who previously purchased a home before first selling may become more motivated to reduce their asking price rather than carry two mortgages.”

 

The number of newly listed homes slid 1.5% in June, led by a sizeable pullback in the GTA compared to record levels in April and May. A number of other markets in the Greater Golden Horseshoe also saw a pullback in new supply.

 

With sales down by considerably more than new listings in June, the national sales-to-new listings ratio moved further into balanced market territory at 52.8%. The ratio had been in the high-60% range just three months earlier.

A sales-to-new listings ratio between 40 and 60 is generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions, with readings below and above this range indicating buyers’ and sellers’ markets respectively.

 

The ratio was above 60% in fewer than half of all local housing markets in June. The majority of markets with a ratio above 60% are located in British Columbia and Ontario, but a number of Greater Golden Horseshoe markets have downshifted into balanced territory. The ratio fell below 40% in the GTA and Barrie.

 

The number of months of inventory is another important measure of the balance between housing supply and demand. It represents how long it would take to completely liquidate current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

 

There were 5.1 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of June 2017 – up a full month from where the measure stood in March and the highest level since January 2015.

 

Months of inventory in the Greater Golden Horseshoe region are up from the all-time lows reached prior to the Ontario government housing policy changes announced in April 2017. For the region as a whole, there were 2.5 months of inventory in June 2017. While this remains below the long term average of just over three months, it is up sharply from an all-time low of just 0.8 months set in February and March.

 

Across markets in the region, months of inventory ranged from 1.5 months to 3 months in June 2017. As such, housing markets within the Greater Golden Horseshoe remain the tightest in Canada together with those on Vancouver Island and B.C.’s Lower Mainland.

 

The Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI rose by 15.8% y-o-y in June 2017, representing a further deceleration in y-o-y gains since April.

 

Price gains diminished in all benchmark home categories, led by single family homes. Apartment units posted the largest y-o-y gains in June (+20.4%), followed by townhouse/row units (+17.4%), two-storey single family homes (+15.4%), and one-storey single family homes (+12.3%).

 

While benchmark home prices were up from year-ago levels in 11 of 13 housing markets tracked by the MLS® HPI, price trends continued to vary widely by region.

 

Benchmark home prices in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia have been recovering after having dipped in the second half of last year. While y-o-y price gains continue to slow (Greater Vancouver: +7.9% y-o-y; Fraser Valley: +13.9% y-o-y), the trend appears poised to accelerate later this summer as price declines last year fade further in the rear view mirror.

 

Meanwhile, y-o-y benchmark home price increases were running just below 20% in Victoria and elsewhere on Vancouver Island.

 

Benchmark price gains slowed on a y-o-y basis in Greater Toronto, Guelph, and particularly in Oakville-Milton but remain well above year-ago levels (Greater Toronto: +25.3% y-o-y; Guelph: +25.4% y-o-y; Oakville-Milton: +17.4% y-o-y).

 

Calgary benchmark prices remained slightly positive on a y-o-y basis in June (+0.6%), while Regina and Saskatoon home prices came in below year-ago levels (-0.7% and -3.1%, respectively).

 

Benchmark home prices rose by more than the rate of overall consumer price inflation in Ottawa (+5.2% overall, led by a 6.2% increase in both one and two-storey single family home prices), Greater Montreal (+4.2% overall, led by a 6.9% increase in prices for townhouse/row units) and Greater Moncton (+4.7% overall, led by a 10.6% increase in prices for townhouse/row units).

 

The MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) provides the best way of gauging price trends because average prices are prone to being strongly distorted by changes in the mix of sales activity from one month to the next.

 

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in June 2017 was $504,458, up just 0.4% from where it stood one year earlier.

 

The national average price continues to be pulled upward by sales activity in Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto, which are two of Canada’s most active and expensive housing markets. Excluding these two markets from calculations trims more than $100,000 from the national average price ($394,660).

 

PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national sales information from MLS® Systems from the previous month. 

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types. 

MLS® Systems are co-operative marketing systems used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale. 

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 120,000 REALTORS® working through some 90 real estate Boards and Associations.

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The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 11,671 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in June, down 9.6 per cent from the same period last year. Total sales dollar volume was $8.47 billion, down 5.6 per cent from June 2016. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $725,778, a 4.4 per cent increase from the same period last year.

“Although home sales remain well off the record pace set last year, demand is still quite robust,” said Brendon Ogmundson, BCREA Economist. “That demand is supported by a strong provincial economy and vigorous job growth.”

“But, supply remains a challenge, which means most areas are seeing tight market conditions and significant upward pressure on prices,” said Ogmundson. Total active listings in the province were down 6.2 per cent to 29,651 units from June 2016.

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 21.7 per cent to $39.1 billion, when compared with the same period in 2016. Residential unit sales declined 18.6 per cent to 54,830 units, while the average MLS® residential price was down 3.8 per cent to $712,993.

 

For detailed statistical information, contact your local real estate board. MLS® is a cooperative marketing system used only by Canada’s real estate boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.  

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The Bank of Canada is raising its target for the overnight rate to 3/4 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/2 per cent. Recent data have bolstered the Bank’s confidence in its outlook for above-potential growth and the absorption of excess capacity in the economy. The Bank acknowledges recent softness in inflation but judges this to be temporary. Recognizing the lag between monetary policy actions and future inflation, Governing Council considers it appropriate to raise its overnight rate target at this time.

 

The global economy continues to strengthen and growth is broadening across countries and regions. The US economy was tepid in the first quarter of 2017 but is now growing at a solid pace, underpinned by a robust labour market and stronger investment. Above-potential growth is becoming more widespread in the euro area. However, elevated geopolitical uncertainty still clouds the global outlook, particularly for trade and investment. Meanwhile, world oil prices have softened as markets work toward a new supply/demand balance.

 

Canada’s economy has been robust, fuelled by household spending. As a result, a significant amount of economic slack has been absorbed. The very strong growth of the first quarter is expected to moderate over the balance of the year, but remain above potential. Growth is broadening across industries and regions and therefore becoming more sustainable. As the adjustment to lower oil prices is largely complete, both the goods and services sectors are expanding. Household spending will likely remain solid in the months ahead, supported by rising employment and wages, but its pace is expected to slow over the projection horizon. At the same time, exports should make an increasing contribution to GDP growth. Business investment should also add to growth, a view supported by the most recent Business Outlook Survey.

 

The Bank estimates real GDP growth will moderate further over the projection horizon, from 2.8 per cent in 2017 to 2.0 per cent in 2018 and 1.6 per cent in 2019. The output gap is now projected to close around the end of 2017, earlier than the Bank anticipated in its April Monetary Policy Report (MPR).

 

CPI inflation has eased in recent months and the Bank’s three measures of core inflation all remain below 2 per cent. The factors behind soft inflation appear to be mostly temporary, including heightened food price competition, electricity rebates in Ontario, and changes in automobile pricing. As the effects of these relative price movements fade and excess capacity is absorbed, the Bank expects inflation to return to close to 2 per cent by the middle of 2018. The Bank will continue to analyze short-term inflation fluctuations to determine the extent to which it remains appropriate to look through them.

 

Governing Council judges that the current outlook warrants today’s withdrawal of some of the monetary policy stimulus in the economy. Future adjustments to the target for the overnight rate will be guided by incoming data as they inform the Bank’s inflation outlook, keeping in mind continued uncertainty and financial system vulnerabilities.

Information note:
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is September 6, 2017. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on October 25, 2017.

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The trend in housing starts was 215,459 units in June 2017, compared to 214,570 units in May 2017, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This trend measure is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.


“The trend in housing starts for Canada reached its highest level in almost five years”, said Bob Dugan, CMHC’s chief economist. “So far this year, all regions are on pace to surpass construction levels from 2016 except for British Columbia, where starts have declined year-to-date after reaching near-record levels last summer.”

Monthly Highlights

Prince Edward Island

Prince Edwards Island’s housing starts continued to trend up during the month of June. Starts of single family homes have been particularly strong the first six months of this year, up 97 per cent compared the same period in 2016.

Québec CMA

In June, housing starts trended higher in Québec as a result of the construction of a large condominium project. However, in the conventional rental housing segment, year-to-date results show a 22 per cent decrease in housing starts compared to the same period in 2016. This decrease can be explained, in part, by the period of strong activity observed in this segment in 2015 and 2016 and the rise in the vacancy rate.

Toronto

The total housing starts trend in the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) remained virtually unchanged in June compared to the previous month. The pace of new home construction has been stable across all housing forms. A minor decline in the single-detached starts trend was offset by gains in the multi-family sector. Glancing further back, construction of ground-oriented homes, which includes single-detached, semis and town homes, have gained momentum throughout 2017, as housing starts so far this year have reached a five-year high. Limited resale supply in combination with strong home buying demand in Toronto have led more buyers to purchase pre-construction units.

Barrie

Higher trending single-detached and row starts have pushed Barrie’s total housing starts up for the second month in June. Demand for new homes continued to fuel home starts in the town of Innisfil instead of the land-scarce city of Barrie. The town of Innisfil has become the prime location for the construction of low and medium-density homes in the Barrie CMA.

Oshawa

Oshawa had a record level of seasonally adjusted starts in June 2017, the pace of construction being nearly three times higher than the average seen over the past three years. While all housing types saw increases in June, the row and apartment segments were the clear leaders. Price weary buyers from the Toronto CMA continue to fuel demand for new homes in Oshawa.

Fort McMurray/Wood Buffalo

Fort McMurray has experienced strong rebuilding activity after the wildfires last May. Since January, 785 housing starts have been recorded, twice as many as in the last two years combined. The majority of these new starts have been replacement single detached homes.

Victoria

Housing starts trended higher in the Victoria CMA last month as new rental projects were initiated in Langford. Total starts for 2017 remain elevated but reduced from the record-setting pace last year. Multi-unit starts have been sluggish to date compared to singles, which are slightly above expectation. However, multi-unit construction remains elevated at 30 per cent above the five-year average. Developers will be keeping an eye on how the market responds to a higher completion rate going forward.

Vancouver

Vancouver CMA housing starts trended downwards in June, driven by a decrease in apartment starts. In the first six months of 2017, there were 880 ownership apartment starts in the City Vancouver, compared with 3,290 in the first half of 2016. Given the strong housing starts activity in the past year and the record number of units now under construction, it is not surprising to see starts trend downward according to industry capacity.


CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of Canada’s housing market. In some situations analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading, as they are largely driven by the multi-unit segment of the market which can vary significantly from one month to the next.


The standalone monthly SAAR of housing starts for all areas in Canada was 212,695 units in June, up from 194,955 units in May. The SAAR of urban starts increased by 9.6 per cent in June to 194,773 units. Multiple urban starts increased by 9.4 per cent to 127,944 units in June and single-detached urban starts increased by 10.1 per cent, to 66,829 units.


Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 17,922 units.

 

Preliminary Housing Starts data are also available in English and French through our website and through CMHC’s Housing Market Information Portal. Our analysts are also available to provide further insight into their respective markets.

As Canada’s authority on housing, CMHC contributes to the stability of the housing market and financial system, provides support for Canadians in housing need, and offers objective housing research and information to Canadian governments, consumers and the housing industry.

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Canadians have come to expect ever cheaper debt. An interest rate hike this week would mark the reversal of that trend.

 

 

Announcements from the Bank of Canada are rarely something to get excited about, but this Wednesday is shaping up to be different. For the first time in seven years, the central bank could actually raise interest rates. Officials have strongly signalled over the past couple of weeks that a hike is coming on the back of positive economic data. For many economists, an increase is a foregone conclusion, and the bigger question is whether governor Stephen Poloz signals more tightening is on the agenda.

 

A single increase in the overnight rate from 0.5 per cent to 0.75 per cent is not going to radically change the economy and household finances, but it would be more than just symbolically significant.  Many Canadians have become accustomed to cheap debt—mortgage rates, for example, have been falling since the 1980s—and the next few years could see a reversal of that trend.

 

“We’re clearly at a tipping point, not just in the Canadian economy, but in the global economy, where we need to acknowledge that rates will steadily climb over the next several years,” says Frances Donald, senior economist with Manulife Asset Management. “This Bank of Canada meeting represents the first step toward a higher rate environment.”

 

Here’s how that will play out in a few key ways.

Growth in household debt will slow

One number has probably generated more economic headlines and hysteria than any other: the household debt-to-income ratio. As of the first quarter of this year, Canadians owed $1.67 for every dollar of disposable income earned. (A decade ago, it was $1.39 for every dollar earned.) One recent study found that Canadian households and companies are piling up debt faster than any other developed nation in the world, adding $1 trillion since 2011. A dubious honour, to be sure.

 

The increase has been driven by historically low interest rates. Naturally, an uptick in the cost of borrowing should dissuade Canadians from taking on debt at such a fast pace. There are already signs the debt-to-income ratio has peaked (it ever-so-slightly decreased in the last quarter, for example) and a rate hike could cause it to slow further or flatline.

 

Anything to prevent Canadians from becoming even more indebted should be a good thing. But debt-fuelled spending has helped boost the economy since the financial crisis. If households cut back, won’t the economy suffer? Not necessarily. “The only reason the Bank of Canada would even entertain raising interest rates at this point is because the economy is strong enough to sustain it,” says Beata Caranci, chief economist at TD Bank Financial Group. GDP is growing at a very healthy annualized rate of 3.7 per cent, she points out, adding that other sectors are starting to pick up the slack from the country’s juggernaut of a real estate industry.

Canadians will pay more to service debt

Households have been able to take on so much debt because the monthly cost to pay it down has been fairly low and stable. As a result, the debt service ratio (which measures the costs to pay down loans compared to disposable income) has bounced around 14 per cent for the past decade.

 

That will change if the Bank of Canada raises its benchmark rate, driving up the cost of loans of all kinds. The Parliamentary Budget Office recently estimated the debt service ratio will increase to more than 16 per cent over the next few years, warning that the “financial vulnerability of the average Canadian household would rise to levels beyond historical experience.” It’s an open question how some Canadians will cope with higher payments. “Some households might not be able to afford anincrease,” Donald says. “And this where we can see defaults, first on auto loans and then on housing.”

 

If Canadians are paying more to service debt, they’ll also have less money to spend, which could weigh on the economy. That’s part of the reason why economists anticipate the Bank of Canada will tighten gradually and allow households time to adjust.

Mortgage rates are going up

In fact, mortgage rates are already increasing. RBC hiked its fixed mortgage rates by 20 basis points last week, and both BMO and CIBC made similar moves over the weekend. Most Canadians opt for fixed mortgages so these households with existing mortgages won’t be affected immediately. Even those refinancing a fixed mortgage in the next little while will likely still score a lower rate than five years ago.

 

But those with variable mortgages, which move with the Bank of Canada rate, could see an immediate (though still modest) effect. According to a survey conducted by Mortgage Professionals Canada last year, about 25 per cent of buyers chose a variable or adjustable rate mortgage. New buyers, regardless of which option they choose, can expect to pay slightly more on a monthly basis for a mortgage than in the past, which means…

The housing market could cool

Falling rates have been an important driver of the residential real estate market, since buyers can take on bigger mortgages. Higher carrying costs reverse that trend. According to Donald, the markets that could be most affected are not necessarily Toronto or Vancouver, which are popular cities for foreign buyers and speculators who aren’t as fazed by interest rates. Poloz said earlier this year that even a five per cent rate hike wouldn’t dissuade speculators.

 

Instead, first-time buyers play a much bigger role in the rest of Canada, and they’re more sensitive to interest rates. Markets in these regions are already flat or cooling as the federal government and regulators have tightened mortgage rules numerous times over the past few years. Compare just about any other city to Toronto and Vancouver, for example. The Office of the Superintendent of Financial  Institutions proposed even more tightening last week, creating another headwind.

 

But the Greater Toronto Area isn’t totally immune. Real estate activity slowed dramatically after the provincial government introduced a foreign buyer tax and other measures in April to balance the market. Sales plunged 37.3 per cent in June, while new listings rose by 16 per cent. The question now is whether Toronto will bounce back like Vancouver did just a few months after the imposition of a non-resident buyer tax.

 

Caranci at TD is wagering it won’t. The Vancouver market benefited from falling rates, while Ontario’s policy changes coincide with rate hikes. “We have flat sales all the way out until next year,” she says. “We do think the combination of policy changes and a change in the mortgage rate environment will prevent that rebound.”

The loonie will rise

The Canadian dollar has already ticked up compared to the greenback in anticipation of a rate hike, increasing roughly six per cent since May to 77.6 cents U.S. While some anticipate the loonie could pull back if currency speculators want to lock in profits, the longer term trend points to a slightly higher dollar. Economists anticipate the loonie could hover between 77 and 80 cents. Generally, a higher dollar can harm Canadian companies that export goods abroad—and the export sector is only now starting to show signs of life. But even with the loonie at 80 cents, demand for Canadian goods shouldn’t be hit hard, Caranci says. “That’s still a significant discount.”

 

Provided by:  from Macleans

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Reciprocity Logo The data relating to real estate on this website comes in part from the MLS® Reciprocity program of either the Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR), the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board (FVREB) or the Chilliwack and District Real Estate Board (CADREB). Real estate listings held by participating real estate firms are marked with the MLS® logo and detailed information about the listing includes the name of the listing agent. This representation is based in whole or part on data generated by either the GVR, the FVREB or the CADREB which assumes no responsibility for its accuracy. The materials contained on this page may not be reproduced without the express written consent of either the GVR, the FVREB or the CADREB.