The imbalance between supply and demand in the condominium market is creating home buyer competition across Metro Vancouver*.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales in the region totalled 3,893 in June 2017, an 11.5 per cent decrease from the 4,400 sales recorded in June 2016, an all-time record, and a decrease of 10.8 per cent compared to May 2017 when 4,364 homes sold.

Last month’s sales were 14.5 per cent above the 10-year June sales average.

“Two distinct markets have emerged this summer. The detached home market has seen demand ease back to more typical levels while competition for condominiums is creating multiple offer scenarios and putting upward pressure on prices for that property type,” Jill Oudil, REBGV president said.

There were 5,721 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in June 2017. This represents a 2.6 per cent decrease compared to the 5,875 homes listed in June 2016 and a 5.3 per cent decrease compared to May 2017 when 6,044 homes were listed.

The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 8,515, a nine per cent increase compared to June 2016 (7,812) and a 4.2 per cent increase compared to May 2017 (8,168).

“Home buyers have more selection to choose from in the detached market today while condominium listings are near an all-time low on the MLS®,” Oudil said. “Detached home listings have increased every month this year, while the number of condominiums for sale has decreased each month since February.”

For all property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for June 2017 is 45.7 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 24.5 per cent for detached homes, 62 per cent for townhomes, and 93.2 per cent for condominiums.
Generally, analysts say that downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below the 12 per cent mark for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.

“Market conditions will vary today depending on area and property type,” Oudil said. “It’s important to work with your local REALTOR® to help you understand the trends that are occurring in your community.”

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $998,700. This represents a 7.9 per cent increase over June 2016 and a 1.8 per cent increase compared to May 2017.

Sales of detached properties in June 2017 reached 1,320, a decrease of 15.5 per cent from the 1,562 detached sales recorded in June 2016. The benchmark price for detached properties is $1,587,900. This represents a 1.4 per cent increase from June 2016 and a 1.1 per cent increase compared to May 2017.

Sales of apartment properties reached 1,905 in June 2017, a decrease of 9.6 per cent compared to the 2,108 sales in June 2016. The benchmark price of an apartment property is $600,700. This represents a 17.6 per cent increase from June 2016 and a 2.9 per cent increase compared to May 2017.

Attached property sales in June 2017 totalled 668, a decrease of 8.5 per cent compared to the 730 sales in June 2016. The benchmark price of an attached unit is $745,700. This represents a 10.7 per cent increase from June 2016 and a 0.6 per cent increase compared to May 2017.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver is an association representing more than 13,500 REALTORS® and their companies. The Board provides a variety of member services, including the Multiple Listing Service®. For more information on real estate, statistics, and buying or selling a home, contact a local REALTOR® or visit www.rebgv.org.

Gorgeous Views

3 Bed, 1054sqft Concrete Home

Priced at $634,800

Open: July 8 from 1 to 3

Gorgeous! The only way to describe this stunning home. Located in UniverCity; Vancouver's premier lifestyle neighborhood. Enjoy amazing views from every room that will exceed your expectations. This 3bed/2bath/1054sqft home offers an efficient open floor plan, an abundance of light, quality flooring, GE Cafe apps, quartz counters, a large kitchen w/island, covered balcony & so much more. Spacious master has walk-through closet, 4pc ensuite w/dble sinks & the 2nd & 3rd rooms are well-sized. Altitude is Vancouver's highest rising tower, 1 yr young & rental & pet friendly. Bonus: 1 locker & Parking. Walk to: transit, campus, childcare, shopping, indoor/outdoor rec. & a host of resident-only perks. Act Now! OPEN HOUSE July 8 from 1 to 3.

HIGHLIGHTS:

• Hawkish turn at the Bank of Canada?

• Canadian economy heating up

• Falling oil prices and low inflation may keep Bank on hold until 2018

Mortgage Rate Outlook

For the past six months, the relative calm in the Canadian economy meant that mortgage rates were guided more by external factors than domestic ones. Most prominent has been the quieting of previously bullish sentiment on US growth and inflation, as neither the trillion-dollar infrastructure plan nor tax cuts promised by the Trump administration have been proposed, never mind passed, despite one-party control of Congress. Bond markets have taken notice of this inaction, dramatically revising down expectations. Consequently, bond yield spent much of the last three months sliding back toward pre-election levels. 

Pushing against this trend, the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) remains steadfast in its desire to normalize interest rates as the US economy pushes up against full employment. The Fed has now raised rates three time in seven months and continues to signal further rate hikes on the horizon. More importantly, the Bank of Canada, sensing a turn in the economy following three quarters of strong economic and job growth, has seemingly turned hawkish with recent speeches by key policymakers designed to prime markets for an approaching tightening cycle. Those factors seem to be gaining significant traction as rates across the short end of the Canadian yield curve, including the benchmark 5-year Government of Canada bond yield, have increased by about 25 basis points in a matter of weeks. The 5-year yield is now close to where it was at the start of 2017, when 5-year fixed rates were about 30 basis points higher.

Assuming the Canadian economy continues its current trend, the shift in the bond market means that the recent downtrend in 5-year fixed mortgage rates offered by banks and other lenders will likely reverse by the end of the summer. Overall, we expect that the posted rate will remain unchanged in 2017, while discount rates will gradually rise to just under 3 per cent by the end of the year.

Economic Outlook
The Canadian economy has finally returned to good health following the rapid and dramatic decline of oil prices in late 2014 and the consequences of wildfires in Alberta last year. Since the third quarter of 2016, the Canadian economy has expanded at an average rate of 3.5 per cent, well above the Bank of Canada’s estimate of 1.7 per cent sustainable longrun growth. After posting nearly 4 per cent growth in the first quarter of this year, we expect that real GDP growth will slow slightly to around 2.4 per cent in the second quarter with the economy ultimately growing 2.5 per cent this year and 2 per cent in 2018. If the economy continues to accelerate, and growth in real GDP is higher than currently expected by the Bank, slack in the economy could be eliminated by as early as the end of this year, which could push up the timetable for monetary tightening.

Interest Rate Outlook
While the economy is currently very strong, Canada has had several false alarms when it comes to an imminent increase in interest rates. The case for Bank of Canada tightening this time around, however, may be stronger than in the past. Firstly, a rate increase of 25 basis points would mainly undo the rate cut made in 2015 to deal with the dramatic decline in oil prices. With the macroeconomic consequences of that oil  shock dissipated, there is no longer a need to keep interest rates at their current level. Secondly, rapid growth in the Canadian economy means that slack in labour and products markets is being eliminated faster than expected, which should begin to put upward pressure on inflation, with a return to the Bank’s 2 per cent inflation target sooner than currently projected. So far, higher inflation has failed to materialize. The most recent reading on both total CPI inflation and the Bank of Canada’s preferred trend measure of inflation registered just 1.3 per cent.  Muddling the case for monetary tightening is the recent slide in oil prices. A glut of oil supply in global markets has once again pushed oil to the mid-$40 level with some expecting prices to test sub-$40 per barrel. If that occurs, it could take some wind out of the sails of the economy while also pushing inflation lower. Indeed, the oil futures curve has dipped below the assumption used by the Bank in their most recent forecast.  While the likelihood of the Bank raising its target rate by the end of 2017 has certainly increased, we still expect the Bank to hold off until early 2018, particularly if oil prices remain low and inflation fails to pick up.

Mortgage Rate Forecast is published quarterly by the British Columbia Real Estate Association. Real estate boards, real estate associations and REALTORS® may reprint this content, provided that credit is given to BCREA by including the following statement: “Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.” BCREA makes no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. 2

"Since I live out of the area I needed a Realtor who specializes in the unique Simon Fraser UniverCity market.

Hafez Panju proved to be extremely knowledgeable about the condominiums and community at SFU. He is very thorough, professional, and provided expertise and service beyond my expectations.  He was in constant contact and available throughout . He made the purchase process seamless for me and my son. 

I highly recommend Hafez. "

K. K.

JUST SOLD 5 DAYS OVER ASKING

South East Facing

2 Bed & Nook, 869sqft Concrete Home

Priced at $518,800

Open: Jun 17 from 2 to 4

Stunning, is the best way to describe this home located in UniverCity; Vancouver's premier lifestyle & family friendly neighborhood. Enjoy South/East exposure & Mountain views from every room. This 2bed/2bath/869sqft home offers an efficient open floor plan, 9' ceilings, an abundance of light, quality flooring, GE Cafe apps, quartz counters, a large kitchen w/island, covered balcony & much more. Spacious master has walkin closet, 4pc ensuite w/dble sinks. Gaze at Mnt Baker from a well-sized 2nd bd. Altitude is Vancouver's highest tower, 1yr yng & rental & pet friendly. Bonus: 1 locker & parking. Walk to: transit, campus, childcare, shopping, indoor/outdoor rec. & a host of resident-only perks. Act Now! OPEN HOUSE Sat Jun 17 from 2 to 4

The BC Liberal Party is introducing a new rent-to-own housing scheme, aimed at gradually moving 50,000 households out of renting and into homeownership, the Lieutenant Government announced at the Throne Speech from the legislature in Victoria June 22.

The Liberal Party was seen to have lost key seats in Vancouver after being accused by the opposition NDP of not doing enough on affordable home ownership or rental. This new move seems to be the latest of the party’s eleventh-hour policies, as it tries to cling to its current, tenuous minority government and win the confidence of the House.

The new rent-to-own program would see 50,000 new homes built over the next 10 years. The homes would be rented to residents in the first instance, but part of their rents would be siphoned off by the government into an account to build up a down payment.

The Honourable Judith Guichon, Lieutenant Government, said in her speech, “Housing affordability remains a particular concern … and we must ensure middle-class families are not pushed out of urban markets… With the confidence of this House, your government will work with local governments and the private sector to increase the supply of family and starter housing for middle-income earners especially along new transit lines and corridors.

“Your government will work with the private sector to build 50,000 units of new housing across the province over 10 years, which will go into a new rent-to-own home program available to middle-class families. The program will help middle-class renters grow equity through their monthly rent payments until they are in a position to own the home.

“With the confidence of this house … your government will work with municipalities to remove obstacles and eliminate backlogs to speed up the construction of new housing supply, especially for families.”

Guichon added that the Liberals also planned to close rental loopholes on fixed-term leases and renovictions — both areas in which the NDP scored points in the election by promising reforms. She also said that an affordable housing summit would be convened in the fall, and address the issue of real estate speculation in particular.

The Liberals seemed to be looking to gain support in the throne speech by introducing popular new policies, perhaps in a last-ditch hope that their leader would continue to enjoy the confidence of the House and remain in power.

The BC Liberals also lost a voting MLA, Kelowna-Mission MLA and former forestry minister Steve Thomson, on June 22 when he was named the new Speaker of the House – the only MLA to step forward for the position. If the Liberals’ confidence vote fails, the power-sharing agreement between the NDP and the Green Party could see those two parties form a joint provincial government as early as next week.

Joannah Connolly Joannah Connolly is the editor and content manager of REW.ca and Real Estate Weekly newspaper, and editor-in-chief of Western Investor and West Coast Condominium. She also moonlights as the host of the Real Estate Therapist call-in show on Roundhouse Radio 98.3FM. A dual Canadian-British citizen, Joannah has 20 years of media experience in Vancouver and London, with a background in construction, architecture and business media.

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2017 Second Quarter Housing Forecast today.

Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to decline 10 per cent to 101,000 units this year, after reaching a record 112,209 units in 2016. Housing demand gained strength this spring, as some of the effects of federal and provincial policy efforts to tamp it down dissipate. In addition, strong market fundamentals continue to underpin an elevated level of home sales. The ten-year average for MLS residential sales in the province is 84,700 units.

“The province is in its fourth year of above-trend economic growth,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “Strong employment growth, consumer confidence and an influx of inter-provincial migrants are important drivers of the housing market this year.” In addition, with the millennial generation now entering their household forming years, the condominium market in major urban centres is experiencing pressure on supply.

The average MLS® residential price in the province is forecast to decline 1.1 per cent to $683,500 this year, and increase 5.2 per cent to $719,100 in 2018. The decline in the provincial average price is largely due to rising demand for more affordable condominiums and a larger proportion of home sales occurring outside the Metro Vancouver region. The supply of homes for sale is at a 20-year low in the province, with sellers’ market conditions prevelant across most BC regions and home types.

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) is the professional association for about 22,000 REALTORS® in BC, focusing on provincial issues that impact real estate. Working with the province’s 11 real estate boards, BCREA provides continuing professional education, advocacy, economic research and standard forms to help REALTORS® provide value for their clients. 

The British Columbia Real Estate Association says a lack of homes on the market means buyers are paying more for housing across the province.

The association has released figures for May showing 12,402 homes were sold in B.C. last month, down 7.9 per cent when compared with May last year.

Total listings also fell 11.1 per cent to 28,404 over the same period.

But the association says sales remained very active in May, surpassing the number of new listings by 20 per cent in nine of B.C.'s 11 real estate boards and topping 50 per cent in Vancouver, the Fraser Valley, Chilliwack and Victoria.

Prices also jumped 4.2 per cent between May 2016 and last month, with the average B.C. home selling for $752,536.

Association chief economist Cameron Muir says despite strong consumer demand, the supply of homes for sale across the province has plunged 50 per cent over the last five years.

"The entire southern portion of the province is experiencing a shortage of housing supply, which makes continuing upward pressure on home prices inevitable, at least in the near term," he says.

Provided By The: Canadian Press

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 12,402 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in May, down 7.9 per cent from the same period last year. Total sales dollar volume was $9.33 billion, down 4.0 per cent from May 2017. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $752,536, a 4.2 per cent increase from the same period last year.

“Market conditions have tightened considerably this spring as an upturn in consumer demand has not been accompanied by a rise in homes listed for sale,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “The supply of homes for sale in the province has fallen 50 per cent over the past five years.”

“The entire southern portion of the province is experiencing a shortage of housing supply, which makes continuing upward pressure on home prices inevitable, at least in the near term,” added Muir. Total active listings in the province were down 11.1 per cent to 28,404 units from May 2016. The ratio of home sales to active listings was well over 20 per cent in nine of the province’s 11 real estate boards, and over 50 per cent in Vancouver, the Fraser Valley, Chilliwack and Victoria.

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 25.2 per cent to $30.6 billion, when compared with the same period in 2016. Residential unit sales declined 20.1 per cent to 43,158 units, while the average MLS® residential price was down 5.7 per cent to $709,541.

BCREA is the professional association for over 22,000 REALTORS® in BC, focusing on provincial issues that impact real estate. Working with the province’s 11 real estate boards, BCREA provides continuing professional education, advocacy, economic research and standard forms to help Realtors provide value for their clients.

Excellent Layout

3bed/2bath/1196sqft

Priced at $558,800

Bright, spacious & open layout are just a few ways to describe this home. This 1196sqft/3bed/2bath, corner unit is one of the larger plans in the Harmony complex. Your wait is over. Features: open living & dining rooms, laminate floors, excellent room separation, spacious kitchen with eating area, stainless appliances & access to covered balcony. The large master has ensuite w/soaker tub & walk-in closet. The well-sized 2nd & 3rd rooms complete this home. The Harmony complex offers gym facilities & allows for rentals & pets. Close to: transit, shopping, indoor/outdoor recreation & a host of perks available only to UniverCity residences. Do not miss your chance to enjoy living in this great lifestyle neighborhood! Act Now!

South East Facing

2 Bed & Nook, 869sqft Concrete Home

Priced at $518,800

Open: Jun 17 from 2 to 4

Stunning, is the best way to describe this home located in UniverCity; Vancouver's premier lifestyle & family friendly neighborhood. Enjoy South/East exposure & Mountain views from every room. This 2bed/2bath/869sqft home offers an efficient open floor plan, 9' ceilings, an abundance of light, quality flooring, GE Cafe apps, quartz counters, a large kitchen w/island, covered balcony & much more. Spacious master has walkin closet, 4pc ensuite w/dble sinks. Gaze at Mnt Baker from a well-sized 2nd bd. Altitude is Vancouver's highest tower, 1yr yng & rental & pet friendly. Bonus: 1 locker & parking. Walk to: transit, campus, childcare, shopping, indoor/outdoor rec. & a host of resident-only perks. Act Now! OPEN HOUSE Sat Jun 17 from 2 to 4.