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The BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator (CLI) increased 0.48 index points to 122.7 in the second quarter of 2016, in spite of a modest pull-back in economic activity throughout the third quarter. The CLI index is up 2.4 per cent compared to the third quarter of 2015.

“Job growth in key commercial sectors and robust consumer demand led the CLI higher in the third quarter,” said BCREA Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “A rising CLI points to continued strength in BC commercial real estate activity in 2017.”

Robust third quarter employment gains offset modest declines in the economic activity and financial components of the CLI. The underlying CLI trend, which smooths often noisy economic data, continues to push higher due to several quarters of strong economic statistics. That uptrend signals further growth in investment, leasing and other commercial real estate activity over the next two to four quarters.

While strong growth in the economic activity component propelled the CLI higher through the first half of the year, a dip in key commerical economic activity indicators like wholesale trade and manufacturing sales were a drag on the index during the third quarter.

Following several months of mixed results, job growth turned positive across all key commercial real estate sectors. The CLI’s index of office employment increased by close to 10,000 jobs in the third quarter of the year, on the heels of a similarly large increase in the second quarter. Moreover, after posted declining job numbers since the beginning of 2016, the average level of employment in the manufacturing sector moved modestly higher in the third quarter.

The CLI’s financial component turned slightly  negative after a second quarter rally in Canadian REITs lost momentum. However, a further tightening  of short-term credit spreads signals that markets  were less concerned about underlying downside risk in the economy.

 Q3 Highlights:

•Growth in retail sales slowed marginally in the third quarter, but still posted year-overyear growth of nearly 6 per cent. Wholesale trade slowed from over 8 per cent growth in the second quarter to 5.4 per cent in the third. That growth offset a 1.6 per cent quarterly decline in BC manufacturing sales.

• Canadian REIT prices edged down by 1 per cent by the end of the third quarter following a 10 per cent increase in the previous quarter. Narrowing risk spreads were not quite enough to keep the CLI’s financial component positive for a second consecutive quarter. The financial component has now posted declines in five of the last six quarters.

• The CLI measure of office employment increased by close to 10,000 jobs for a second straight quarter while the manufacturing sector broke a string of two straight quarters of declining payrolls. Those employment trends accounted for all of the increase in the CLI in the third quarter.

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Home buyer and seller activity remains near historical averages in the Metro Vancouver* housing market.

Residential home sales in the region totalled 2,214 in November 2016, a decrease of 0.9 per cent from the 2,233 sales recorded in October 2016 and a decrease of 37.2 per cent compared to November 2015 when 3,524 homes sold.

Last month’s sales were 7.6 per cent below the 10-year sales average for the month.

“While 2016 has been anything but a normal year for the Metro Vancouver housing market, supply and demand totals have returned to more historically normal levels over the last few months,” said Dan Morrison, Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) president.

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Metro Vancouver totalled 3,147 in November 2016. This represents a decrease of 20.9 per cent compared to the 3,981 units listed in October 2016 and a 7.2 per cent decrease compared to November 2015 when 3,392 properties were listed.

Last month’s new listing count was 1.2 per cent below the region’s 10-year new listing average for the month.

The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 8,385, an 8.3 per cent decrease compared to October 2016 (9,143) and a 3.6 per cent increase compared to November 2015 (8,096).

The sales-to-active listings ratio for November 2016 is 26.4 per cent. This is up two per cent from last month (24.4 per cent).

Downward pressure on home prices can occur when the ratio dips below the 12 per cent mark for a sustained period, while home prices can experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.

“Demand, relative to supply, for detached homes is lower right now than demand for townhomes and apartments,” Morrison said. “This is causing prices to remain stable, or flat, for townhomes and apartments, while detached homes are seeing modest month-over-month declines.”

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $908,300. This represents a 1.2 per cent decrease compared to last month and a 20.5 per cent increase compared to November 2015.

Sales of detached properties in November 2016 reached 638, a decrease of 2.1 per cent from the 652 detached sales recorded in October 2016 and a 52.2 per cent decline over November 2015.

The benchmark price for detached properties is $1,511,100. This represents a 2.2 per cent decline compared to last month and a 23 per cent increase compared to November 2015.

Sales of apartment properties reached 1,200 in November 2016, an increase of 1.9 per cent compared to the 1,178 sales in October 2016 and a 22.7 per cent decrease compared to November 2015.The benchmark price of an apartment property is $512,100. This is unchanged from last month and is an 18 per cent increase compared to November 2015.

Attached property sales in November 2016 totalled 376, a decrease of 6.7 per cent compared to the 403 sales in October 2016 and a 40.9 per cent decline compared to November 2015. The benchmark price of an attached unit is $667,100. This represents a 0.3 per cent decrease compared to last month and a 23 per cent increase compared to November 2015.

The share of foreign ownership in condominium apartments remains low in major Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs). This analysis is the result of combined insight from two Housing Market Insight reports released by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation today.

National Report Highlights

• Foreign ownership of condominiums was highest in Vancouver and Toronto at 2.2% and 2.3%, respectively. However, both markets saw a decline in share of foreign ownership compared to last year.
• The 2016 shares in both Vancouver and Toronto were more in line with those in 2014. The relatively higher shares observed in 2015 were due to an unusually high proportion of foreign ownership in newly constructed condominiums that year relative to 2014 and 2016.
• Foreign ownership in Montréal remained relatively stable at 1.1%. Foreign ownership remains higher in Downtown Montréal and Nuns’ Island, at 4.3%.
• Outside of the above mentioned CMAs, the share of foreign owners ranged from a low of 0.2% in Saskatoon and Regina to a high of 1.2% in Halifax.
• Foreign ownership continues to be higher among newer and larger buildings in the central areas of Toronto and Vancouver. In Toronto, the share of foreign ownership rose to 3.9% in buildings completed since 2010 and in buildings with more than 500 units, it rose to 5.5%. In Vancouver, newer buildings saw a 5.0% share of foreign owners while buildings with more than 100 units reported 3.2% share of foreign owners.

The commercial real estate market in the Lower Mainland remained active in the third quarter (Q3) of 2016, according to data from Commercial Edge, a commercial real estate system operated by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV).

There were 645 commercial real estate sales registered in the Lower Mainland in Q3 2016. This represents a 6.3 per cent increase from the 607 sales in Q3 2015.

The total dollar value of commercial real estate sales in the Lower Mainland in Q3 2016 was $2.399 billion, a 1.9 per cent decline from the $2.445 billion in Q3 2015.

“While we saw some declines in office and retail sales this quarter, overall demand in the commercial market remains steady thanks to healthy economic growth in our province so far this year,” said Dan Morrison, REBGV president. “It was the busiest third quarter in the last five years for sales in our commercial market.”

Q3 2016 activity by category

Land: There were 255 commercial land sales in Q3 2016, which is a 23.8 per cent increase from the 206 land sales in Q3 2015. The dollar value of land sales in Q3 2016 was $1.306 billion, a 46.4 per cent increase over $892 million in Q3 2015. 

Office and Retail: There were 203 office and retail sales in Q3 2016, which is an 8.1 per cent decrease from the 221 sales in Q3 2015. The dollar value of office and retail sales in Q3 2016 was $438 million, a 45.4 per cent decrease from $802 million in Q3 2015.

Industrial: There were 153 industrial land sales in Q3 2016, which is up 15.9 per cent over the 132 sales in Q3 2015. The dollar value of industrial sales in Q3 2016 was $335 million, a 17.3 per cent increase over $286 million in Q3 2015.

Multi-Family: There were 34 multi-family sales in Q3 2016, which is a 29.2 per cent decrease from the 48 sales in Q3 2015. The dollar value of multi-family sales in Q3 2016 was $321 million, a 31.2 per cent decrease from $466 million in Q3 2015.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) released its third quarter financial results today as well as supplemental data on the Corporation’s Mortgage Loan Insurance, Securitization, and Covered Bonds business activities.

CMHC’s mortgage loan insurance and securitization guarantee programs operate on a commercial basis without support from Canadian taxpayers. During the quarter, CMHC generated $331 million in net income from these activities.

Report Highlights

• During the third quarter, CMHC facilitated access to mortgage financing by providing mortgage loan insurance for 127,991 units across the country, up 26.8% from the same period last year.
• At September 30, 2016, the size of CMHC’s mortgage insurance business was $514 billion in total insurance-in-force, a $9 billion decrease from the previous quarter. This is still well below CMHC’s legislated insurance-in-force limit of $600 billion.
• The average equity Canadian homeowners hold in their property also increased slightly in the third quarter to 34.8% from 34.4% in the previous quarter.
• Homebuyers with CMHC-insured mortgages have a strong ability to manage their debts as supported by an average credit score of 751 for transactional homeowner loans and an average gross debt service (GDS) ratio of 25.7% for the three-months ended September 30, 2016.
• The strength of CMHC’s portfolio is reflected in the overall arrears rate which, as at September 30, 2016, stood at 0.32%, unchanged from the previous quarter. Total number of loans in arrears was 8,286 as at September 30, 2016.
• New securities guaranteed for the third quarter totalled $43.1 billion, comprised of $32.9 billion for market NHA MBS and $10.2 billion for CMB.

Consistent with our mandate, CMHC is present in all markets and through all economic cycles.

CMHC also works closely with provinces, territories and housing providers, including First Nations, to help low-income Canadians access affordable, better quality housing. For the three-month period ended September 30, 2016, CMHC provided more than $531 million for housing programs on behalf of the Government of Canada.

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2016 Fourth Quarter Housing Forecast today.

Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to climb 11 per cent to a record 113,800 units this year, eclipsing the previous record of 106,310 units in 2005. Less robust economic conditions combined with government policy constraints are expected to slow housing demand by more than 15 per cent to 96,300 units in 2017. However, housing demand is expected to remain well above the ten-year average of 85,000 unit sales. “Housing demand across the province is expected to moderate next year as declining affordability related to rising prices and government policy interventions limit the number of eligible buyers,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “However, while home sales are not expected to repeat this year’s record performance, consumer demand is expected to remain well above the ten-year average.”

The average MLS® residential price in the province is forecast to increase 9.8 per cent to $698,900 this year. The supply of homes for sale is expected to trend higher next year as moderating demand is met with added new home completions. A trend toward more balance in the market will unfold next year and exert less upward pressure on home prices. In addition, a larger contraction in the number high-end home sales will contribute to moving the aggregate average price statistic lower. As a result, the average MLS® residential price in the province is forecast to decline 6.4 per cent to $654,200 in 2017.

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Over the last several months, housing experts, stakeholders, and Canadians from all walks of life participated in “Let’s Talk Housing” consultations and shared their views to help shape a National Housing Strategy (NHS) that will strive to improve the lives of those in greatest need.

On the occasion of National Housing Day, the Honourable Jean-Yves Duclos, Minister of Families, Children and Social Development and Minister Responsible for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), today released a “What We Heard” from Canadians report.

This summary report takes stock of the consultations, identifies emerging themes and highlights exciting ideas to help define the future of housing in Canada.

The national consultations explored new and innovative ways of responding to persistent housing challenges, including ways to improve housing outcomes for Canadians as a cornerstone for achieving broader socio-economic objectives.

Quote

“Ensuring that Canadians have access to affordable housing, with all of the socio-economic benefits that come with it, is a key priority for the Government of Canada. The input and ideas we received from Canadians will be invaluable in helping to shape a National Housing Strategy that delivers better housing, socio-economic and environmental outcomes for all Canadians.”
— The Honourable Jean-Yves Duclos, Minister of Families, Children and Social Development and Minister Responsible for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Quick Facts

• To ensure that we heard from people who have been homeless or are living in subsidized housing, newcomers to Canada and persons with disabilities, among others, focus groups were held across the country.
• The Government of Canada, through CMHC, sought the input of provinces and territories who held their own consultations, and provided their ideas on the future of housing in Canada. CMHC hosted a series of expert roundtables on themes ranging from housing finance and data to social inclusion and sustainability.
• CMHC also sought the advice and input of key national housing stakeholders, and held roundtables on rural, remote and urban Indigenous housing, as well as northern housing.

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Royal Bank (TSX:RY) is hiking mortgage rates and making it more expensive for homebuyers who want to take more than 25 years to pay back their loan.

The bank is raising its special offer for a five-year fixed rate mortgage to 2.94 per cent, an increase of 30 basis and 25 basis points, respectively.

The lender is also raising its special offer for a four-year fixed rate mortgage to 2.79 per cent and three-year fixed rate mortgage to 2.69 per cent, increases of 30 and 25 basis points, respectively.

The changes take effect Thursday November 17 2016.